Wayne Selden Jr. Scouting Report: October 2014

Mar 23, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Wayne Selden, Jr. (1) shoots the ball over Stanford Cardinal guard/forward Anthony Brown (21) and Josh Huestis (24) during the second half in the third round of the 2014 NCAA Men

With the season just around the corner, I will be looking at some of the NCAA’s returning players who are projected to be first-round picks in the upcoming draft. The first two players on the docket were Kentucky’s Willie Cauley-Stein and Michigan’s Caris LeVert. Now it’s time to evaluate Kansas’ Wayne Selden Jr.

Statistics

Scouting Report

Had Wayne Selden Jr. pencilled his name in for the 2014 NBA Draft, he would’ve likely been a first round pick. But after a disappointing freshman season at Kansas, the 20-year old decided that he had some unfinished business to take care of and opted to return to school for his sophomore year.

In terms of his future in the NBA, it was a wise decision. Selden walked onto Kansas’ campus as a highly touted five-star high school prospect. After his senior year at Tilton School, in which he averaged 24.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, ESPN ranked him as the 14th best player in the nation and Rivals had him as the 12th. However, in his first year with the Jayhawks, he quickly became an afterthought on offense and struggled to find his feet.

Now that Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid are gone, Selden returns as the leader of the pack. And with that, he’ll be looking to take on a much bigger role, more like the one many thought he would waltz into as a freshman.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at what he brings to the table.

Shooting

Selden was used primarily as a spot-up shooter as a freshman. Some of that had to do with the fact that he dealt with a knee injury all season long, but most of it had to do with the emergence of Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid. The two went on to be the first and third pick in the draft, respectively, and they ate up a large chunk of Kansas’ offensive possessions. That meant fewer scoring opportunities for everyone else. For Selden, it took the ball out of his hands and turned him into a shooter.

According to KenPom, Selden was used in 16-to-20 percent of the Jayhawks’ offensive possessions last season, classifying his as a role player. He only took 7.9 shots per game and nearly 50 percent of those were 3-pointers. Problem is, he shot only 32.8 percent from three, which isn’t great considering how many open looks he saw playing alongside Wiggins and Embiid.

Wayne Selden Jr.’s Shot Chart

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Upside & Motor

In saying that, Selden did show off the ability to knock down outside shots. He made 42 threes on the season and shot 32-for-81 (39.5 percent) from mid-range. He gets good elevation when shooting off the dribble, making it hard for opposing team’s to block or disrupt his shot.

Consistency is the next big step for Selden when it comes to shooting. His mechanics aren’t perfect but they’re fluid for the most part, especially when he catches and shoots the ball in rhythm. He’s shown that he can get hot from three — he knocked down five 3-pointers when he scored a season-high, 24 points against Oklahoma — but he also went through deep lulls throughout the season.

Attacking The Basket

Only 24.5 percent of Selden’s total shot attempts last season came at the rim. That’s much lower than it should’ve been for a player of his calibre, especially when you consider that he shot 69.1 percent when he got there (better than Wiggins, Perry Ellis and Naadir Tharpe).

One reason why he excels around the rim is because of his physical tools. At 6-foot-6, he’s the perfect height for a shooting guard in the NBA and he weighs upward of 225-pounds. Particularly on straight line drives, he uses his strength to get by defenders and finish through contact. He’s also not afraid of drawing fouls. He’ll throw his body into an opposing team’s shot blocker, not recklessly, but in a way that ensures he’ll draw the foul.

Selden has a huge wingspan, too. Although he’s not very explosive, his long arms help him finish shots around the rim.

However, Selden struggles to get to the rim on a routine basis. He’s not bad on the fast break. He still dribbles into trouble too often, but he’s quick, strong and agile enough in a straight line to be effective. He’s also a lot more explosive when he gets a full head of steam.

Half court sets, though, are a different story. The biggest issue is that Selden doesn’t have a quick first step and he struggles to turn the corner with a burst of speed. What that does is make it easy for defenders to stick with him in one-on-one match-ups. But more so, it gives the four other defenders ample time to help out, pack the paint, or close off lanes to the basket. All of the culminates in Selden getting cut off far too early in half court sets, forcing him to settle for tough shots or make a difficult play.

The knee injury he dealt with all season long certainly hampered his quickness and explosiveness. Selden admitted so much himself. Nevertheless, he still has to improve his decision making, handles and quickness if he hopes to become a more dominant player in the paint. A strong and healthy knee wont be the be-all and end-all.

Assists

Naadir Tharpe led the Jayhawks with 5.0 assists per game in 2013-2014 and following him was Selden with 2.5.

It doesn’t give us a huge sample size to work with but Selden proved to be very capable of finding teammates in the pick-and-roll, on the fast break and in half court sets. It’s not that he does anything particularly impressive when it comes to passing the ball. Most of his assists were off of simple plays, such as making an entry pass into the low post or finding a cutter back door. In a Spurs-like system, that thrives off of moving the ball and finding open teammates, Selden would fit in well.

Of course, that did come with some bad. Selden appeared to be startled when teams trapped him or sent a double his way. It’s why he had a turnover rate of 20.3, which is incredibly high given how little he had the ball in his hands on a game-to-game basis.

Defense

Selden rarely picks up fouls. He only committed 2.8 per 40 minutes as a freshman. The reason is he doesn’t reach or use his hands when playing defense. Instead, he uses feet and body to stay in front of players, which is promising when projecting how effective he would be at the next level. He does a good job of anticipating a player’s next move, too, and he uses his strength to prevent players from turning a corner and getting an easy lane to the basket.

Selden also seems to take personal match-ups to heart. For example: After a disappointing loss to the Texas Longhorns on February 1st, he drew some praise from Bill Self when he limited Javan Felix to six points on 2-for-9 shooting in a rematch later that month. He also kept Oklahoma State’s Marcus Smart to 14 points on 4-for-14 shooting from the field in the Big 12 quarterfinals, helping Kansas outlast them in overtime by a final score of 77-70.

The fallout of Selden never using his hands, however, is that doesn’t get many steals or blocks. He only recorded 25 steals in 35 games last season and his steal percentage was only 1.4. That ranked him 41st out of 62 players in the Big 12 who appeared in 40 percent of their team’s minutes throughout the season.

Beyond that, the biggest issue defensively for Selden is that he doesn’t have great lateral quickness. For that reason, he struggles to contain dribble penetration, especially from smaller, quicker guards. He also has a tendency to show-and-go (stepping in slightly and then jumping back out to his man on the perimeter) instead of fully helping out his teammate.

Overall

It’s easy to see why Selden was on the NBA radar even after a lacklustre freshman campaign. Although still quite raw, he has the tools to become a good role player at the next level. He’s strong, athletic, unselfish, smart, and he’s shown that he has good vision and can knock down shots once he gets going.

With that, obviously, comes some concerns. Selden wasn’t as good as advertised last season, which is why returning to school was the right decision. With Embiid and Wiggins gone, he has the opportunity to take on a much bigger role, and he could see his stock soar.

Selden sounds a lot more confident heading into the upcoming season, too. Following knee surgery this summer, he’s looking to show off some of the athleticism that made him a top recruit in high school. When asked about it, he said he now feels like he’s 16 or 17 years old again. That’s a good sign that Selden is gearing up for a bounce back year.

All statistics courtesy of KenPom, Draft Express, ESPN and Hoop Math.