Roundtable: Very Early 2015 NBA Draft Predictions
High School Basketball: McDonald
Here, on Upside and Motor, we’ve always got our eyes set on the upcoming 2015 NBA Draft. Even though the college basketball season is yet to start, we think we’ve got a good idea of who will be the most electrifying and dominating freshman, who will move up the draft boards the most in a matter of months, and who will likely be the top pick when it’s all said and done.
Which freshman are you most looking forward to watching this season?
Spencer Layman (@nba_spen): Well, it was going to be Emmanuel Mudiay but since he’s in China, I’ll go with Stanley Johnson. I think Arizona is a top tier team from a talent, coaching and depth standpoint. The lineup of TJ McConnel, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Johnson, Brandon Ashley and Kaleb Tarczewski will be devastating. Johnson is going into the season as a top 10 prospect and I think he can live up to the expectations. He was one of my favorites to follow throughout his high school career and I’m looking forward to following every game of his like I did Andrew Wiggins last year.
Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck) Jahlil Okafor. I have a deep resentment for Duke basketball and post play in general — I’d rather watch a run-and-gun style team — but there’s something awe-inspiring about watching dominant college big men. Joel Embiid showed brilliant flashes at Kansas last season, but he is/was still learning the game to an extent. Okafor will be ready to go from the jump, and there will be few players that can deal with his size and array of moves in the post. I think there’s a good chance he dominates from start to finish, delivering on hype in a way that last year’s freshman failed to sustain.
Stephen Shepperd (@ShepHoops): I’ve been excited to see Kelly Oubre kick off his college career for a while. While some felt Wiggins was reluctant to get his buckets with Kansas last year, I think Oubre will be the exact opposite being that he has absolutely no conscience from behind the arc. The dude can knock them down and is quickly learning how to aggressively take it to the hoop in traffic. He still has some fundamentals and consistencies to iron out, but I think Bill Self can find a way to make Oubre one of the deadliest players in the country.
Andrew Ford (@AndrewFord22): I’m a huge fan of hustle and athleticism, and Stanley Johnson possesses both traits in spades. He will experience sporadic growing pains, particularly on offense where he’s still raw, but that’s what makes college hoops fun. Watching top prospects overcoming obstacles and growing their game is always a joy. He’ll be good for a multitude of ferocious dunks this season in transition, likely after he’s just swiped the ball on the other end. As if that’s not enough to get you excited, Arizona is poised to be one of the best teams in the country this season. How Johnson performs will greatly affect how far the Wildcats can go.
Which returning player do you think has the best chance to move up the draft boards by the season’s end? Why?
Spencer Layman (@nba_spen): Can I pick a few? No? I’m going to do it anyways, so deal with it. I think the three guys that could move up the most are: Yogi Ferrell, Jerian Grant and Kennedy Meeks. I have never been a huge fan of Yogi Ferrell (he absolutely destroyed me in high school, long time grudge) but after his play last season, I definitely think he could potentially have a dramatic jump into the first round in 2015 He should be one of the highest scoring guards in the B10 — and nation! — this upcoming year. Jerian Grant is one of my favorite college players ever. After being suspended for the second half of the season, I think he’s geared for a big year. According to Nylon Calculus’ prospect comparison tool, his 2013 season matched up best with Greivis Vasquez’ 2008 season and his half of a season last year compared to Spencer Dinwiddie’s before he tore his ACL. That is one established NBA player (Vasquez) and one player a lot of the analytic gurus liked (Dinwiddie). And lastly, Kennedy Meeks. Kennedy Meeks gave the Tarheels a nice inside presence last year and I think that he, as well as the other players on the team, will take a step forward this year. Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson will help his progression. OK, I’m done. NO WAIT! Last one with no explanation: Isaiah Taylor. Ok, seriously. I’m done.
Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck) For whatever reason, I still have this irrational belief that Alex Poythress is going to turn into a player. He has tools that are pretty insane, and those have helped carry him while his actual basketball skills have lagged behind. Kentucky has a crowded roster yet again, so he’s going to be fighting for playing time, but the things he does always look appealing on good teams. If he can improve the J even a little bit, the offensive rebounding, finishing and defensive versatility he brings to the table will shine brighter.
Stephen Shepperd (@ShepHoops): Oklahoma State’s Le’Bryan Nash has been very slow to live up to his potential in his first three years of play. He’s had to undertake so many different roles for his team over past seasons — taking a back seat to Marcus Smart, for one — but I think that he’s ready to make this his team, now in his senior year. There’s been a lot of talk out of the Cowboy camp that Nash is increasing his basketball IQ and understanding how to take better shots, all of which has been absent from his game so far. It’s no secret that he has underwhelmed scouts to this point in his college career, but I think the departure of Smart has opened the door for Le’Bryan Nash to take over in Stillwater and increase his draft stock. He may not become a lottery pick, but I don’t think becoming a late first round to early second round pick is out of the question for him.
Andrew Ford (@AndrewFord22): Michigan’s Caris LeVert is poised to step up and take a lot of the shots reserved for Nik Stauskas last season. LeVert is going to be the Wolverines go to guy when they need a bucket, and if he thrives in that role he could easily leap into lottery position. He possesses a smooth stroke from range, and it’s game over if he gets a split second to shoot in a spot-up situation. If he can improve off the dribble and cut down on low percentage, forced mid-range shots, he will become a much more dynamic offensive player, thus making him much more enticing to NBA scouts. After LeVert demonstrated great improvement year-over-year from his freshman to his sophomore season, there is no reason to think he can’t fully handle the increased role thrust upon him as a junior. Upside & Motor’s fearless leader really likes LeVert and did a tremendous breakdown on his game.
Who will be the 2015 Naismith Player of the Year?
Spencer Layman (@nba_spen): The safe route would be just to say Jahlil Okafor and move on. And that’s exactly what I’m going to do I think.
Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck) Okafor. Too big, too skilled.
Stephen Shepperd (@ShepHoops): We shouldn’t try to get cute here; this is Jahlil Okafor’s award to lose. I understand that sometimes highly-touted freshman can come into college and find themselves immediately struggling to impact the game as much as many thought they could, but this won’t be happening with Okafor. I think he proved he was ready to play this past weekend in Duke’s Countdown to Craziness when he scored 27 points (12-for-14 FG) in the 24 minute contest. That’s bananas.
Andrew Ford (@AndrewFord22): It’s crazy to pick a freshman to win the Naismith Player of the Year award before he has even played a single college game, but in the case of Jahlil Okafor, it would perhaps be more crazy to not pick him to win it. His footwork and finishing ability in the low post make him almost impossible to stop. Throw his ability to hit mid-range jumpers with regularity into the mix, and you get one of the best scorers currently in the college game at least on paper. I firmly believe that he could have been inserted into an NBA game as a high school senior for 10-15 minutes and held his own. He’s that skilled. Just check out some of the stuff he was able to do at Whitney Young as a high schooler.
Let’s jump the gun: If the 2015 draft started tonight and you had the first pick, who would you take?
Spencer Layman (@nba_spen): From an overall perspective, I would probably take one of the bigs i.e. Okafor, Cliff Alexander or Towns. If I’m the Sixers, I would take Stanley Johnson, Emmanuel Mudiay, or trade back and see what else I could get. I’m not sure how sold I am on all the bigs but I guess that’s what predictions are for.
Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck) The safe pick would be to stick with Okafor, and that’s what I would do at this moment. But I’m keeping my eye on Kelly Oubre, who has gotten a ton of buzz this summer after a sizable climb in the ranks during his senior year of high school. I’m a sucker for athletic wings, and he’s probably the best of the bunch at this point in time.
Stephen Shepperd (@ShepHoops): I’m going with Okafor again. I truly believe that league front offices will be salivating over this guy until the draft in June. He’s clearly the safest bet right now, and will only get smarter, quicker, and tougher in the paint as the year progresses. If “Choke For Okafor” isn’t a thing yet, I’m going to trademark it.
Andrew Ford (@AndrewFord22): Okafor. He’s going to be a force on both ends of the floor for Duke, and there’s not going to be a more complete player than him in what looks to be a weak draft class, particularly when you compare it to last year’s stacked class. Barring a major injury this season (please no), I agree with Kyle and Stephen that Okafor will be the safest pick in the 2015 draft. He’s either a four or five tool player, depending on your criteria, that can create his own shot, shoot a little bit, tenaciously rebound, create shots for teammates, and defend. There aren’t many of those guys in any draft class.