Trying To Solve The Brady Heslip Conundrum

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

On Saturday, Brady Heslip set the D-League ablaze yet again. In 39 minutes, the Baylor product scored a season-high 45 points on 13-for-20 shooting from three. In the process, he broke the D-League’s all-time single game record for three-pointers made. However, filling up the scoring column is nothing new for Heslip, and as he continues to shoot his way into the record books, how he fits in at the next level is still up for debate.

If there’s one person who knows what Heslip is going through, it’s Troy Daniels. Following four years at VCU, Daniels went undrafted in 2013 and opted to play in the D-League for the Houston Rockets’ affiliate, the Rio Grande Valley Vipers. Similar to Heslip, it was there where Daniels became a household name. In Nevada Smith’s three-point happy system — one that is almost a mirror image of the Bighorns’ this season — he soon became one of the D-League’s leading scorers and established himself as an elite marksman. In just 27 games, Daniels surpassed Andy Rautins’ record for total three-pointers made in a season. Daniels almost doubled it by the season’s end.

For Daniels, his hard work didn’t go unnoticed. The Rockets signed him to a contract before the playoffs began, and it was there where his wildest dreams came true. He is now on a guaranteed contract for one more season. More importantly, he is living proof that the D-League can help players create a niche for themselves in the NBA.

Heslip is hoping to follow in the footsteps of Daniels, and it’s promising that his professional career has gotten off to an even better start. Through the Bighorns’ first five games, he has made 45 threes, a pace which pegs him to make 450 threes in total this season. While it’s unlikely that he will surpass that exact number, the odds of Heslip demolishing Daniels’ D-League record are high. He is also leading the league in scoring and is doing so in just 29.2 minutes per game with a True Shooting Percentage — adjusted for three-pointers and free throws — of 76.0.

And yet, in the midst of Heslip’s record setting pace, there’s a high level of uncertainty in how his game could translate to the NBA. The Bighorns are by far and away the league leader in scoring, and they’re shooting threes at an unprecedented volume (50.4 per game). Their system is predicated on pressing teams for 48 minutes and taking shots within the first 12 seconds of the shot clock. Their games are essentially track meets.

With Heslip only playing a shade over two quarters a game, he benefits from fresh legs when other teams are tired. Combine that with the sheer volume of shots he’s taking and it’s hard to truly evaluate his value outside of Reno’s system. And while he’s scoring the ball at an unbelievable rate, he has totals of just three assists and six rebounds on the season. For a 6-foot-1 point guard, that’s concerning enough to scare off potential suiters.

To add to that, the opportunities Heslip has been given wont be there at the next level. Only five teams in the NBA are taking more threes on a per 48 minutes basis than Heslip himself, and he’s attempting 0.73 shots per minute he’s on the court. One of the teams that has shown interest in him in the past is the Minnesota Timberwolves, and they’re firing up just 15.1 threes per game — tied for the second lowest in the NBA. One can’t help but wonder how he’d fit into their midrange-heavy system if he were to receive a call-up.

The ultimate problem for Heslip, though, is that the Sacramento Kings — owners of the Bighorns — have made no indication that they plan on calling him up anytime soon. As someone who has a very defined skill set, that could hurt him in the long haul. For Daniels, who, likewise, didn’t do much other than shoot the ball last season, every moment in a Vipers uniform was scrutinised under the watchful eyes of the Rockets. Seeing as the Vipers run a similar yet more extreme version of their system, they’re breeding players who could compliment the likes of James Harden and Dwight Howard. Heslip doesn’t have that opportunity in Reno.

The show Heslip has put on thus far this season is incredible, there’s no doubt about it. He has made five or more threes in each of the Bighorns’ five games, and done so on 60 percent shooting. To make his record breaking performance on Saturday even more impressive, it came on a back-to-back. He’s thriving in the Bighorn’s system and proving that he’s one of the best shooters to ever step foot on the D-League’s hardwood floors.

With all that in mind, though, it’s hard to see Heslip establishing a home at the next level anytime soon. Being in Reno allows him to flaunt off his shooting ability, but it might not be the place for him to nurture his weaknesses. He’s an elite shooting guard that is stuck in a point guard’s body, and he’s doing all his damage on a team that is experimenting with analytics.

For that reason, there’s certainly reason for teams to approach Heslip’s early season success with caution.