2015 NBA Draft Scouting Report: Stanley Johnson

Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

Stanley Johnson had a great freshman season. He started all but one game for the Arizona Wildcats and led the squad in scoring with 13.8 points per contest. Unfortunately for Johnson, he played arguably his worst game of the season in what was his team’s last game of the season against the Wisconsin Badgers in the Elite Eight.

Accustomed to winning at every level, Johnson has not taken the loss well. Before Arizona’s season ended, it seemed a foregone conclusion that he would make the jump to the NBA. However, Johnson is ‘torn’ over whether or not to declare for the 2015 NBA Draft, according to a report by CBS reporter Jon Rothstein.

Upside and Motor’s Stephen Shepperd already wrote an excellent open letter to Johnson explaining why he should turn pro, so I don’t need to touch on that. Assuming he will make the prudent decision and declare for the NBA Draft, let’s focus on his skill set.

First and foremost, Stanley Johnson is a freak. That phrase without basketball context seems cruel, but in terms of his on court play, it’s certainly a compliment. He has no chill on the basketball court, and he only knows how to play one speed — fast. Standing at 6-7 with a 6-11 wingspan, Johnson is arguably the most athletic player in this year’s draft class, and his athleticism creates major advantages for him on both ends of the floor.

Offensively, Johnson is best in transition, where his natural athleticism allows him to flourish. His physicality coupled with his long, graceful strides make him nearly impossible to stop with the ball in his hands in the open court.

In the half court, however, things were more complicated.

Johnson has a slightly mechanical release on his jump shot that leads to a flat trajectory, but he has a quick trigger and the shot goes in at a high rate, which is all that matters. Not known for three-point shooting in high school, Johnson converted 37.1% of his threes while attempting 3.1 per game his freshman season. He was excellent in catch-and-shoot situations, converting 44% of such attempts. If his range can extend to the NBA three-point line, he will be a player teams can’t simply leave alone on the perimeter, making him a much more dangerous weapon offensively.

Despite often putrid floor spacing in Arizona’s offense, Johnson demonstrated the ability to utilize his power and athleticism to slash to the rim with regularity. Like many elite college wing players, Johnson was able to overpower most defenders he faced, backing them all the way down to the basket. Solely utilizing power on drives in college isn’t an issue, but he won’t be able to do that at the next level. Don’t get me wrong, he will remain a physical specimen, but most defenders will be strong enough to cut off penetration in a straight line. For Johnson to evolve offensively, he must improve his handle and develop a few finesse moves to become less predictable.

Perhaps Johnson’s most glaring issue offensively is his ability, or lack thereof, to finish at the rim. In half-court situations, he shot a brutal 40% at the rim. His lack of touch is alarming, and he often enters the paint out of control like a bull in a china shop. His incredibly quick first step coupled with his aforementioned power and athleticism that allowed him to be so effective on drives to the rim mean little if he can’t learn how to finish better in the paint. Right now, Johnson’s saving grace is his ability to get to the free throw line (4.9 free throws per-40 minutes) and convert his freebies at a high rate (74.2%).

Arizona needed Johnson to do a great deal every game since he was the team’s best offensive weapon, but he often took it upon himself to do too much. I often found myself thinking that Johnson has not yet outgrown the way he played in high school, when he was definitely “the man.”  At times, he disrupted the offense too much with his lackadaisical, system-free movement in an attempt to selfishly get himself the ball.

His decision-making wasn’t great on the ball, either. He could dominate the offense too much by dribbling with no purpose, and his attack was often slow and not as pointed as it should be in the pick & roll. That might seem harsh, but he still must learn to fit in and make better decisions within the flow of an offense.

Johnson still has a long way to go when it comes to attacking with the ball in his hands, but he deserves credit for his improvement as a ball-handler over the course of the season. Late in the year, he demonstrated the ability to create more opportunities for himself and others out of the pick & roll, and he even showed that he could change speeds at times — skills that will be important to his success at the next level. Creating for others has never been Johnson’s strong suit, and Arizona head coach Sean Miller wisely didn’t ask Johnson to be a passer very often. He’s capable of making a beautiful pass at times as he sees the floor well, but at this point he’s most comfortable making the simple pass.

While it will be fun to watch Johnson’s development offensively, most of his intrigue as an NBA prospect stems from his defensive ability. When locked in, there aren’t many wing defenders better than Johnson at the college level. His lightning quick first step allows him to wall off driving lanes, and his muscular frame ensures that most guys won’t simply overpower him.

Johnson’s ability to hound ball-handlers, sharp shooters, and slashers without a noticeable change in result is both impressive and rare. His ability to cause chaos on the defensive end is perhaps best represented by the turnovers he creates. His sheer physicality forces ball-handlers to lose control, and his great understanding of help defense concepts allows him to shade ball-handlers to a spot on the floor that will put them in precarious situations. Being able to wear his man down coupled with his flare for jumping into passing lanes at exactly the right moment helped him average 2.1 steals per-40 minutes this season.

Off the ball, Johnson remains an aggressive defender. His quick, strong closeout allows him to roam and play off of perimeter players a little more than is typical, much like Tony Allen does for the Memphis Grizzlies. A quick, swarming recovery leaves little time for his man to get a shot off.

Attention to detail — not ability or physical tools — has plagued Johnson on the defensive end. Most notably, he can check out for entire possessions which leads to him losing his man for an easy bucket. He’s also slow in his recognition of screens at times (could be lack of awareness or teammates simply not calling out screens soon enough), which will undoubtedly be a bigger issue at the next level if his mental approach doesn’t improve. If a coach in the NBA can reach him and get him to lock in on every possession, the sky is truly the limit for him as a defender.

Rebounding is another area where Johnson excels. He mostly played on the perimeter on both ends of the floor, which makes his rebound rate of 9.1 per-40 minutes extremely impressive. He doesn’t always get great position, but he never stops fighting and he won’t be outworked for a rebound.

The Stanimal is a fiery, competitive guy, so it makes sense that he wants to go out on top of college basketball before entering the NBA. His poor overall performance in the NCAA Tournament has caused his stock to trend down, and most major draft sites have him in the second half of the lottery now as a result. Despite his will to win at every level and his falling stock, Johnson would be silly to return for another season. He has almost nothing to gain, and he’s NBA ready right now. He’s simply too talented to stay another year, and it’s impossible to see his stock staying at its current level for very long.