Scouting Report: Is Justin Jackson a first-round pick in the making?

Coming into North Carolina last year, Justin Jackson was the No. 9 recruit in the country by the Recruiting Service Consensus Index (RSCI). A year later, amongst the top 11 players in RSCI, Jackson is the only player returning to college. But his return is not an indication of underwhelming performance — in fact, he had a real chance at being a first rounder had he declared. Instead, it speaks to the type of sophomore season he’s expected to have for the Tar Heels.

The first thing you notice about Jackson is his lanky frame (6-8 and 200 pounds) and the smoothness with which he carries it. Unlike what his body structure would suggest, his 6-10 wingspan is fairly pedestrian for someone his size. As he adds weight, he might try and play some small ball 4, but he currently fits the traditional mold of a small forward in both size and skill set.

Jackson’s primary ability is putting the ball in the basket, and he showed signs of being a deadly college scorer during his freshman season at UNC. Averaging 10.7 points per game is nothing special, but his 16.1 points per 40 minutes on 54.7 percent True Shooting is promising for an ACC freshmen. His end to the season was particularly intriguing, when he scorched Virginia’s stout defense with 22 points in the ACC tournament. He also went on to lead UNC in scoring over their three NCAA tournament games.

This coming year, Jackson will look to build on his late season run and likely develop a 1A/1B situation with his All-ACC teammate Marcus Paige.

Shooting

Strictly from last year’s basic stats, it’s fair to wonder if shooting is a concern for Jackson. He shot a middling 71 percent from the line and a very concerning 30.4 percent from 3. Wings who can’t shoot above 33 percent from 3-point range in the NBA either need to be high-end defenders or true primary scorers. Jackson doesn’t project to be either at the NBA level.

Nonetheless, there are good reasons for optimism about Jackson’s outside stroke.

His release is smooth and quick, and the fluidity with which he shoots makes him look like a knockdown shooter. Also, according to MaxPreps, he shot 37 percent from 3 during his senior year in high school on a healthy 139 attempts. Adjusting to the slightly deeper line and better competition may have been the cause of his struggles, but it also could have just been variance. He only shot 92 3-pointers last year. Had he made just four more, he would’ve converted 35.7 percent of those attempts and no one would be worried about his outside shooting.

If Jackson’s struggles continue into this year it will be worth re-examining if he can fit into modern NBA offenses. But the underlying signs suggest Jackson is a competent enough outside shooter. If he gets a little more comfortable with the NCAA game and variance swings in his favor it’s not hard to see him envision him stroking the ball at a rate more similar to his 37 percent from high school.

Creating

It’s important for Jackson to have a solid outside shot for his team’s floor spacing, but possibly even more crucial for his own personal scoring. He loves to attack closeouts from the perimeter and his ability to make plays from ball swings or kick outs is his greatest strength. He also uses his height to his advantage. He has the first step quickness of a wing in conjunction with long strides that almost always gain him a step on defenders.

On drives to the basket, Jackson does a great job of playing with poise and rarely looks hurried or forced into a decision. His first option is usually looking for his own shot, but he does it in a way that is rarely seen in a 6-8 player — he predominantly scores in the mid-range and on quick floaters that he lofts over the heads of defenders. Much like similarly weird prospect T.J. Warren, the floater is the basis of his offensive arsenal. He gets it off quickly from all over the floor and shoots it in a manner that prevents the defense from ever being able to anticipate it. The floater is a generally inefficient shot, but his ridiculously soft touch allowed him to shoot an incredible 50 percent from the mid-range, according to Hoop-Math.com.

Part of the reason Jackson goes to his floater so often is that he lacks the strength or explosion to finish around defenders at the rim. He’s not a bad athlete by any means, but he doesn’t have the type of bounce to jump into defenders, re-adjust and finish. However, when he does get all the way to the basket he does a nice job of extending and using angles to find space for his shot. Soft touch combined with his ability to find space actually makes him a fantastic finisher even though he relies on the mid-range game so much. His shot chart, courtesy of Shot Analytics, gives a clearer picture of the various locations he can score from on the court.

You can see that Jackson has shot volume from all over the court, aside from the super deep mid-range (which is a good thing). One thing of particular note is his volume in both baseline mid-range areas. His ability to catch on the wing, take a hard dribble or two towards the baseline and loft up a floater from the baseline is unique, and he takes a huge volume of that exact shot.

Jackson’s a score first player, but a big reason why he’s such a dynamic offensive player is his passing ability. He rarely throws passes that jump out at you, but he consistently makes good decisions with the ball on dump-offs to big guys and kick outs to shooters. Put it this way: His 15.4 Assist Percentage and 12.2 Turnover Percentage is much more guard-like than wing-like.

In addition to attacking closeouts and rotations, Jackson has some ability to create his own shot in other ways. His handle is solid for a wing; he lacks the moves to thrive in isolation but he has enough control to probe in pick and roll and run a Nic Batum type role. Paige will initiate most of UNC’s offense, but look for Jackson to step into a bigger creating load this year.

It is worth noting that Jackson does a good job as a cutter off the ball, too, and has a knack for picking up garbage man type baskets around the hoop. With his ability to get the ball off quickly with touch, he does a great job in situations where he catches on the move near the hoop.

Defense

Jackson’s strengths on the basketball court are on the offensive end. While his frame helps him in many ways on offense, it doesn’t do much good for him on the defensive end. Despite being such a smooth player, he seems to lack a degree of flexibility in his hips and it makes him stiff and upright in his defensive stance. A poor stance combined with average athleticism makes it difficult for him to stay with wings, most obviously when he has to change directions in short spaces.

Combining poor quicks with a skinny frame is a deadly combination because, when players gain an edge on him, he usually lacks the strength to wall off their path to the rim. Luckily for Jackson, he does have a larger frame than the typical small forward, allowing him to at least recover well on defense and take up some space.

Whether it’s due to his frame or his mentality, another problem for Jackson is his lack of physicality on the defensive end. He seems to play in a somewhat blasé style and doesn’t try to leave his imprint on the game on defense. That lack of playmaking ability is reflected in his numbers as well. He had a fairly underwhelming 1.1 Steal Percentage last year, and his 8.9 Defensive Rebounding Percentage isn’t very good for a 6-8 wing.

As an off-ball defender, Jackson’s lack of presence on the defensive end makes him rather mediocre. He’s not plagued with inattentiveness and mistakes like so many young prospects are, but he’s also not the type of hyperactive rotator who you notice making an impact on the way the opposing team plays their offense.

Jackson isn’t an awful defender at the college level, but he’s definitely not a good one, either. This year I’ll look to see if he can do a better job staying with opponents or engaging in plays more on defense. For now, though, it seems like defense will be a definite weakness for him at the NBA level.

2015-16 Outlook

Jackson is one of the top returning players to watch this year, and the fluidity with which he scores the ball makes him one of the more fun prospects to keep track of. If he can shoot the ball more consistently, pick up a little bit of creative load and show some improvement on the defensive end, he will almost certainly justify a mid-late first round pick. I’m not on the bandwagon for his NBA future, but he’s got enough unique scoring talent to where it is hard to see him slipping out of the early second round.