Scout’s Notebook: Duke vs. Kentucky

Scout’s Notebook is a new series I’m starting and may also continue on my personal blog, Wingspan Addicts. Games like Duke-Kentucky are filled with NBA talent and watching top talent go up against each other is obviously a big part of the scouting process. It’s important not to overreact too much to any one game, but continually updating your perceptions of players as you see more is key to good scouting.

These posts will not be game recaps, but instead focused on how prospects on each team fared and how we should view their performance in context of the rest of their portfolio.

Duke 

Duke’s three most unhyped rotation players were their three most effective in the loss. Senior bigs Marshall Plumlee and Amile Jefferson and junior wing Matt Jones all played well, but none really look like NBA prospects. Jones lacks the athleticism to be a 3-and-D guy at the next level and doesn’t have the offensive firepower to make up for it. Jefferson is a classic 5 in a 4’s body. Both could be good players in Europe, but aren’t on NBA radars. Plumlee is enrolled in the army and is unlikely planning on even pursuing a professional basketball career.

Freshman point guard Derryck Thornton had his best game yet in a Duke uniform and showed some intriguing aspects to his game. His quickness on both ends of the court was evident as he consistently was able to shake his defender on offense and was even able to stay with Tyler Ulis on the defensive end. However, his weak and short frame made it hard for him to get over ball screens on D and even allowed the 5-9 Ulis to finish over the top of him. Those same weaknesses hurt him on offense, where he was unable to finish against Kentucky’s length. Nonetheless, he’s a solid shooter with high-end quickness and flashed some real moves on offense. As he gets more comfortable at the college level he will likely ascend to Duke’s starting lineup and certainly has some backup NBA point guard potential.

Star freshman forward Brandon Ingram struggled mightily, scoring only 4 points on 1-6 shooting and dealing with foul trouble. Matched up against Kentucky’s guards, he needed to get low in his stance to be engaged on defense, but he looked awfully disinterested at times and wasn’t able to stay in front when he didn’t get into position. On the offensive end, he had a lot of nice flashes — some crafty layups with beautiful extension, smooth dribble pull-ups and a nice pass in pick-and-roll — but couldn’t convert on his moves and simply wasn’t aggressive enough looking for more opportunities. He needs to up his intensity on both ends of the floor; considering his length, athleticism and skill level he shouldn’t be fading in and out of games.

Duke’s other freshmen of note, Luke Kennard and Chase Jeter, are probably going to be NBA prospects down the line but didn’t do too much in this game. Jeter had one nice contest on the defensive end where he displayed nearly perfect verticality, but otherwise failed to do much of interest in his limited minutes. Kennard was a little more impressive creating looks for himself both at the basket and from the midrange, yet he wasn’t consistently aggressive and shot 0-5 from the field and 0-3 from 3-point range. He’s known as an elite shooter, but his low release point means he might need more time than most to adjust to college athleticism contesting his shots.

Most disappointing for Duke was the play of their supposed lead dog, Grayson Allen. He shot a miserable 2-11 from the field and had a tough time matching up with Kentucky’s elite guards on the other end. Practically all the flaws with Allen’s game were visible in this game. All of his 2-point field goal attempts came on hard drives to the right and against Kentucky’s long and athletic frontline he was forced to adjust more than he’s used to and was unable to finish or draw fouls. It’s a testament to his athleticism that he was able to get that many decent looks on the exact same move over and over again, but it’s clear he needs to add counter moves and other finishes to his repertoire to score consistently against NBA bodied frontlines. At this stage, Allen looks more like a 3-an-D guy at the NBA level rather than a secondary creator, but he really needs to improve his defensive discipline as he often got himself out of position against Kentucky’s guards.

Kentucky

Most of Kentucky’s players had strong outings, but potential top-3 pick Skal Labissiere dealt with foul trouble and didn’t make much of an imprint on the game. He had two nice moments in pick-and-roll, one interior pass to a teammate and another fluid catch and finish around the defense, but generally wasn’t involved much on the offensive end. Kentucky’s guards were able to get whatever they wanted on offense, so it isn’t very concerning that Skal wasn’t more involved in this particular game. Defensively more of his issues were exposed as he got bullied on the glass by Plumlee and Jefferson and wasn’t able to leverage his length and explosiveness to make up for his strength deficiency. Like Ingram, it seemed Skal was a little too content to just sit back and let the game pass him by.

The rest of Kentucky’s frontline, Marcus Lee, Isaac Humphries, and Alex Poythress, were a mixed bag. Lee started off getting bullied along with Skal, but as the game went on used his bounce and energy to make an impact on the offensive glass and protecting the rim. He’s got enough coordination in pick-and-roll situations that if he can become a more consistent defender he could make for an exciting rim protector and pick-and-roll finisher at the next level. Australian freshman Humphries was more of a deterrent at the rim than scouting reports I’ve read suggested and he had one nice floater on the offensive end. Poythress played poorly in the first half, but killed the offensive glass in the second and displayed his combination of strength and explosiveness. He needs to add some consistency to his outside shot to have a chance at fitting in as a small-ball 4 in the NBA.

As someone who believed Tyler Ulis might have an NBA future last year, this game was a great showcase for why he has a chance despite his 5-9 stature. Ulis controlled the game on both ends with his on-ball pressure disrupting the Duke offense at the point of attack and his patient attacking setting up the rest of the Kentucky attack. Ulis is a maestro attacking in space as he never seems rushed and either creates space for his own mid-range shot or finds an open teammate. The key for him having a chance at the NBA level will be switching from a merely competent outside shooter to a high-level one. He’s got a nice stroke and takes it with confidence, but he needs to connect at a higher rate to make up for his lack of interior scoring.

I was not a fan of freshman point guard Isaiah Briscoe coming into tonight’s game, but he did a lot to make me question my opinion on him. He doesn’t have the athleticism to finish above the rim or blow by people, but he used his strong frame and advanced handle to consistently create space for himself and was able to either convert tough finishes or find his teammates with that space. Even more impressively, he used his strength and huge wingspan to make up for his lack of quicks on defense and did a good job on the much more explosive Grayson Allen. I’m still a bit skeptical of a bad athlete who is a below average shooter at the point guard position, but his feel for the game and tremendous strength were evident in his strong play.

Along with Ulis, other freshman guard Jamal Murray was the star of the game. His defense left a lot to be desired — allowing Matt Jones to beat you to the rim multiple times is not a good sign — but his offensive game made it hard to focus on his defensive shortcomings. In pick-and-roll, he seemed to get a good shot for him or a teammate whenever he wanted. He used a variety of on a string dribble moves and an array of finishing moves at and around the rim in addition to a bunch of solid passes to open teammates. One thing I noticed in this game was how quickly Murray attacked when the ball was swung to him on the perimeter, allowing him to beat off-balance defenders and rotating defenses instead of set ones. His offense was a joy to watch in the second half (even for a Duke fan), but questions about his defensive ability are legit and he needs to show that his athleticism translates to the other end of the floor.