Roundtable: Who are the best prospects in the 2016 NBA Draft?
Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram — Who is the better overall prospect?
Austin Peters (@apete1993): The growing majority seems to be leaning towards Ingram at this point. I think I’m one of the few remaining who still believes that Simmons is the best prospect in this draft, and he is in a class of his own ahead of Ingram. Ingram could move ahead of Simmons eventually, I could totally see that. I just can’t think of a college player since Kevin Durant who has come in and consistently put up those types of numbers. It really is unprecedented.
Trevor Magnotti (@IllegalScreens): Ingram’s production is fantastic, and I don’t see a ton of flaws in his game. He’s going to be a very good player. But while there are more questions about Simmons’s game (read: shooting), I think he’s better at the things he’s best at than Ingram is at the things he’s best at. Simmons is the more polished rebounder, is probably the better finisher, and his shot blocking ability intrigues me more than Ingram’s scoring ability or perimeter defense. Ultimately I think this is a similar scenario to Jabari Parker vs. Andrew Wiggins, where who is picking number one plays a big role in who goes at that spot.
Chris Stone (@cstonehoops): As Ingram improves, this is turning into a more interesting debate. His fit in the NBA as a lengthy, scoring wing is clearer than it is for Simmons who is functionally a 6-10 point guard who can’t shoot. Still, I think that Simmons is a better prospect given his passing vision and rebounding ability. He’ll require a bit of roster finesse — for example, there’s basically no way he fits with the current Philadelphia roster — but he has the skills to make a major impact in the NBA.
J.Z. Mazlish (@jzmazlish): Comparing Ingram to Simmons is as much about how you value things like fit and versatility as it is the players themselves. There isn’t a team in the league that would have a hard time fitting a more developed Brandon Ingram into their roster because of his size, mobility, and shooting. Simmons, on the other hand, needs the ball in his hands to succeed and doesn’t have a clear defensive position. Nonetheless, I think Simmons is just such a dynamic playmaker that I value his one elite skill over Ingram’s blend of above-average tools.
Peter Nygaard (@RetepAdam): Ingram has come on very strong over the past month and a half, and it’s not hard to see why so many are falling in love with his game. But Simmons is still the headliner of this draft in my book. Athletically, he’s a sports car; and at just 19 years old, he’s already in complete control at the wheel. Put him on an NBA court right now, and he’d be able to contribute in some form or fashion. I’m a believer that the shot will come in time. Even without being able to space the floor, though, I’d still give him the clear edge as a playmaker and rebounder. There’s no question that Ingram has made it a debate, but it’s still one that I’d score in favor of Simmons.
Who do you think is the best perimeter defender in this draft class?
Peters: Ingram could be, but right now, I have to go with Wade Baldwin from Vanderbilt. When you watch him play, you immediately see how long his arms and hands are. They are almost Kawhi Leonard like. He can swallow guys up on the ball that he is guarding. He is a really impressive defender. Isaiah Briscoe is also up there, but Baldwin’s size and length give him an edge.
Magnotti: I think Timothe Luwawu has the best tools in the class to be a strong perimeter defender. His combination of length and quickness allows him to guard all three backcourt spots for Mega Vizura, and he won’t have a problem matching up with NBA wings. He’s perhaps the best thief in the draft class, posting a 3.8 steal rate, and unlike guys like Jaylen Brown and Brandon Ingram, he’s probably going to get a lot more development focus on the defensive end because he doesn’t project to be a load-carrying scorer. Much like last year, perimeter defense is at a premium in this class, and Luwawu’s draft stock is going to get a bump because he’s one of the few quality wing defenders available.
Stone: Are folks forgetting about Kris Dunn? I know there’s a little disappointment to be had because Dunn hasn’t really improved his decision-making this season as expected, but Dunn is still a monster on the defensive end where he’s posted a 5.2 percent steal rate. At 6-4 with a 6-9 wingspan and plenty of strength, Dunn should be able to defend both guard spots as well.
Mazlish: Kris Dunn and Wade Baldwin are both very high end defenders who can comfortably guard point guards and shooting guards, and Taurean Prince is probably my pick for best wing defender, but for me bloodline reigns supreme. Gary Payton II from Oregon State is 6-3 with a 6-7 wingspan and brings a combination of incredible athleticism and fantastic instincts unmatched at the college level. Oregon State plays a lot of zone where Payton is extremely disruptive, and when they do man up he locks players up like a glove (hint, hint).
Nygaard: Kris Dunn is a name that comes to mind immediately, given how good he’s been in on-ball defense this year, but I’d actually go with Baylor’s Taurean Prince. He was an absolute menace at the Pan-Am Games last year, which is the last time we’ve really gotten to see him go to work without the constraints of working within Baylor’s 1-3-1 zone look. More so than anyone else in this draft, I think he has the best chance of developing into a shutdown presence at the next level.
Which prospect has the most to prove as we head into February?
Peters: The answer to this question has to be Skal Labissiere, right? There isn’t any other player who has disappointed relative to their expectations as much as Labissiere has this year at Kentucky. You can blame the coaching, the system, the spotlight, whatever. The bottom line is he just isn’t playing well on either side of the ball to the point where he isn’t even in the rotation. Very odd for a player who was seen as the best prospect heading into the year.
Magnotti: I can’t really fault Skal for his struggles this year, so I’m going to go Jaylen Brown. Cal’s stocked with quality players but having a fairly disappointing year, and I think plenty of that has to do with Brown, who’s struggled to even be the focal point of the offense at times. He’s perhaps the best athlete outside of Simmons in the class, but him having success in the NBA looks more situation-dependent than any of the other top prospects. He can change all of that perception, however, if he steps his scoring game up with Tyrone Wallace down with injury. I think Brown has a lot to prove over the next few weeks, but he also will have the best chance to make a statement in February.
Stone: I agree with Austin that the answer to this one is Skal Labissiere. Labissiere entered the season in the top tier of the draft along with Simmons, but has sorely disappointed in Lexington. The biggest problem for Skal is that he may just need to put on some weight to compete with opposing big men and that’s not going to happen in a month.
Mazlish: As much as I love to be contrarian and differ from the crowd, I have to go with Skal here as well. He finally looked a little better last night against Arkansas, and Calipari said after the game that he realized Skal might be better suited to playing in more space on the perimeter than trying to bang in the post. If he can do a better job on the glass and supplement that with some faceup scoring and pick-and-roll buckets he could easily jump back into the top-5 conversation.
Nygaard: I’d say Skal Labissiere, but even amidst all his struggles, it’s hard to imagine a player with his size and shooting ability falling out of the lottery, so I’ll go with someone who might: Kansas’s Cheick Diallo. The top-rated recruit in Bill Self’s 2015 recruiting class has been nailed to the bench so far, having struggled to earn the coach’s trust. He played 20+ minutes for the first time all season last Saturday against TCU and earned his first start in Tuesday’s surprising loss to Oklahoma State, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to hold down his spot in the rotation, meaning he may be running out of opportunities to make a strong impression on scouts this year.
The back half of the first round looks to feature plenty of point guard options, like Wade Baldwin, Isaiah Briscoe, and Melo Trimble. If you were the GM of a playoff team looking for a point guard, who are you taking?
Peters: While I don’t think he has as high of upside as the other three, Trimble has the type of skillset that will be able to translate immediately for a playoff team. He reads the floor well in the pick and roll and can really get into the lane to create. He will be able to run an NBA offense from day one. Baldwin and Briscoe offer much more long term potential, but Trimble will be a guy who plays right away.
Magnotti: I wouldn’t be surprised to see Monte Morris get a late-1st round spot. Morris has impressed this season under a new head coach, and he looks like he has the tools to be a stable 2nd-unit ball-handler at the next level. His shooting has taken a slight step back this year, and his defense is still unlikely to ever be NBA quality. But for a playoff team who needs a secondary ball-handler, particularly one who can play next to a good scoring guard, Morris’s passing ability and pick-and-roll comfort level make him a great option. I wouldn’t be surprised if a team like San Antonio or Atlanta made a move on Morris late in the first round.
Stone: This is a tricky question because I’m not sure any of the late first round point guards will be ready to contribute right away to a playoff team. I guess my answer is Trimble because you could bring him off the bench and let him operate against second units in the pick-and-roll. Although he’s not drawing fouls this year at the rate he was late season, Trimble also has the ability to put his head down and get into the lane like a poor man’s James Harden.
Mazlish: Baldwin is steadily moving up draft boards into the late lottery, and he seems a cut above the rest of the late first round crop to me. He doesn’t have elite “point guard skills,” but he’s not a bad passer or ball handler. More importantly, he’s a menace on defense with his long arms and strong frame and he’s a very good outside shooter who can space the floor at the 1 or 2 position. The flexibility to work as an offensive creator or more of an off-ball 3-and-D type gives him a lot of value for any playoff team.
Nygaard: I think it would depend on what you’re looking for to help your team. If you need a dynamic player who can slide into different lineups, I’d go with Baldwin. If you want a steadying presence to run the second unit and create offense where there’s little to be found, then I’m taking Trimble, no questions asked. I’m still a little bit bearish on Briscoe.
Who is your favorite prospect slated to be a 2nd-round pick this year?
Peters: I have a few that come to mind, but the first one is Dwayne Bacon. That kid just knows how to put the ball in the bucket and he plays with a little bit of an edge to him. He absolutely has to come out this year no matter what his stock is, given that he is oddly old for his class.
Magnotti: Much like Bacon, Dorian Finney-Smith is the guy I think has the most potential to pull a Dwight Powell or Garrett Temple as the “career role-player who finds the same role in the NBA three years later” guy. In no way, shape, or form is Finney-Smith a guy who is going to get you buckets by himself, but he’s been a solid 3-point shooter for two years now, he rebounds well, and his frame and grasp of defensive schemes have made him an intriguing defensive prospect. He’s not flashy by any means, but Finney-Smith fits the mold of another Florida 5th-year senior, Patric Young, as an all-effort guy with NBA tools who should get a shot.
Stone: I think it’s more likely that Monte Morris will go in the second round than in the first should he choose to come out this year, so he’s my answer. There aren’t a lot of ways for me to see him becoming a good individual in the NBA which hurts him, but he’s a great “pure point guard.” He can handle the pick-and-roll about as well as anyone in college hoops and has great vision in transition. He’s also been a 39 percent 3-point shooter in college, so he should provide a bit of outside shooting as well.
Mazlish: Of the guys currently slated to be second rounders and expected to leave this year I’d probably have to go with Louisville sophomore big man Chinanu Onuaku. He’s not very skilled on the offensive end in terms of scoring or shooting, but he’s got almost everything else you would want in a center. He’s got the size to bang with anybody in the post, but has shockingly mobile feet guarding ball screens despite his heavy frame. He’s also got great instincts on both ends of the floor — on defense he does a great job positioning himself and getting his hands on the ball; on offense he’s got a good feel for screen setting and is a deceptively good passer. I wouldn’t be shocked if he develops into a Festus Ezeli-type player down the road.
Nygaard: Maryland senior Jake Layman reminds me a bit of Chandler Parsons. I recall back to Summer League in 2012, when Parsons was coming off his rookie season. Every time you’d look up, there was Parsons flying all over the court, making plays. Layman brings that same little-bit-of-everything to each Maryland game. If he can start hitting 3-pointers with a little more consistency, he has a good chance of sticking with a team and developing into that same kind of glue player that Parsons has become.
Make your case — Which player do you think is the most overrated?
Peters: I am going to say Jaylen Brown. He is a freak athlete and his dunks are vicious, but outside of the athleticism, I don’t know what translates to the NBA. His reputation as a hard worker and a sponge of information bodes well and makes me want to change my mind, but his jump shot mechanics aren’t polished and his handle isn’t tight enough for me to think that he can be effective on the perimeter.
Magnotti: I don’t get Jacob Poeltl. I think he’s got a shot to be good in the NBA, especially defensively, but is he worth a top-10 pick? I question whether he has a diverse enough skill set offensively to really be a factor outside of rim dives and the occasional post-up, and while he’s a great post defender and is Marc Gasol-like in the way he blocks shots, I don’t know that he’s mobile enough to defend in space in the NBA, and his defensive rebounding is slightly concerning. Sure, he could continue to develop into Marc Gasol, but there’s also potential he’s just Kosta Koufos. And while that’s a talented player either way, I can’t see opting for him over what Stephen Zimmerman and Diamond Stone can bring.
Stone: I’m just not that into Jamal Murray. I get that he can go on hot streaks where his offensive game looks incredible, but I’m really unclear about where he fits in the NBA. He’s not super athletic and is averaging quite a few turnovers which makes me question his ability to play point guard. If he’s a shooting guard, then he’s 6-4 with a mediocre wingspan. I think he’ll struggle to keep guys in front of him in the NBA. There are a number of other top 10 options that I’d favor over Murray.
Mazlish: His incredible play of late is starting to make me change my mind, but for now I stand by Diamond Stone as most overrated in this group. Stone is a slightly better rim protector than Jahlil Okafor was last year, but mostly I see a similarly slow and out of fashion defensive prospect without the once in a generation offensive talent. Stone is certainly very skilled for his size, but without shooting ability, mobility on the perimeter, or the ability to play above the rim in pick-and-roll you really have to be a dominant interior scorer to justify a lottery pick in today’s NBA. I just don’t see Stone as dynamic enough on offense to make up for all his weaknesses.
Nygaard: A lot of these players are still only 18 and 19 years old, so saying that a prospect is ‘overrated’ sometimes just means that they haven’t quite shown the things that they are capable of doing. That’s how I feel about Jaylen Brown. There’s a lot to like about what he brings to the table athletically, and he’s had games where he puts it together and can be a handful on both ends of the court. But there are also way too many plays that leave you scratching your head, and he’s struggled mightily as a shooter. I’ve seen him pegged as a top 5-6 pick, and that just seems like a bridge too far for me at this point.