Debating where Utah’s Jakob Poeltl should go in the NBA Draft

Utah’s Jakob Poeltl likely would have been a lottery pick had he decided to enter the 2015 NBA Draft, but the Austria native ultimately chose to return to school, hoping to improve his game and his draft stock. As a sophomore, Poeltl became the focal point of the Utes’ offensive attack as his team earned a three seed in the NCAA Tournament and he moved up NBA big boards. Still, just how high Poeltl should come off the board is up for debate. So, in order to settle it once and for all, Trevor Magnotti and I took to our e-mail to battle it out.

Chris (@cstonehoops): Alright, Trevor. Earlier today on Twitter, you said that we were going to have to eventually fight over the draft prospects of Utah’s Jakob Poeltl. I’m a big fan of the Austrian and had him going fourth overall to the Phoenix Suns in my mock draft for FanSided last week before you slandered him and sent him north of the border to rejoin former teammate Delon Wright at pick nine. In honor of the other popular sport in Canada, consider this my proverbial dropping of the gloves.

I really like Poeltl as a big center who can be surrounded by shooters in the NBA. During the season he played with Wright, Poeltl was an excellent pick-and-roll big man who protected the rim on defense. This year, he was forced to shoulder a larger scoring load with Wright in Toronto and he delivered. Poeltl averaged 22.7 points per 40 minutes while shooting almost 65 percent from the field. What’s not to like?

Trevor (@IllegalScreens): Poeltl was a very successful pick-and-roll big at Utah, and I think he has a chance to be a very good weapon in that role in the NBA. But my biggest concern with Poeltl is that that may be where his offensive game ends at the NBA level. High-efficiency bigs always concern me in the NBA Draft, because their efficiency almost always comes with a reason – that they are hitting shots efficiently because they can’t and don’t take shots away from the basket. According to the Point After, Poeltl took six percent of his shots outside of the paint this year and hit four of them. FOUR! He has no outside shooting game, and I’m skeptical he can become one, because even though his 68.9 percent free throw percentage presents a 25 percent increase from his freshman season, his release still needs significant work.

Now, Poeltl does have a nicely developed post game, which does hint at the potential for some offensive success outside of being a rim-runner, lob finisher, and PNR roll man. but he’s not a gifted passer, especially from the elbow or the perimeter, and that could predispose him to some issues against NBA defenses that will be able to pressure him differently when he’s in the post. Basically I think you have to post Poeltl near the restricted area for him to be a threat, and that could be great on a team with a ton of shooters. But how does he fit offensively on a team where the spacing isn’t ideal, like, say, the Milwaukee Bucks, where I sent him three weeks ago?

Chris: That’s a great point about Poeltl’s offensive game being limited to the restricted area. By my count, six percent of his shots is about 21 attempts. 4-of-21 is truly terrible, but I don’t think that’s a deal breaker for me because he won’t likely be tasked with being a primary scoring option in the NBA. Sure, if you put him on the Bucks next to Greg Monroe and surrounded by non-shooters, that’s a problem, but if your team doesn’t have the ability to space the floor effectively, then they’re probably only going to win so many games anyways.

So, let’s assume Poeltl’s offensive ceiling is as a good PNR center. DeAndre Jordan seems like a pretty good example of a guy who has had success with a limited offensive game. According to Basketball Reference, Jordan attempted three (!!!) shots outside of the paint this season. He’s definitively one of the three best teams on a 53-win team and even if we drop down the to a guy like Tyson Chandler, we’re talking about a former All-Star. If Poeltl’s ceiling can be anywhere near those guys as a PNR big and rim protector, isn’t that worth a top five pick in this draft?

Trevor: If Poeltl can become a defensive player at the level of Jordan or Chandler, that’s definitely a player worth taking high in this draft that is relatively thin on guys who can play both sides of the ball well. And given his surprising mobility and advanced defensive IQ, I can see him being very good in the NBA. However, there’s a difference between being very good and being elite, and I think Poeltl’s physical tools may hold him back from getting to Chandler’s level.

Poeltl has excellent bulk, at 7’0″ 242 pounds, and should have no problems as a post defender. However, he doesn’t have great wingspan. 7’1″ may seem impressive, but for a guy tasked with what Poeltl will be as a rim protector, he comes up a little short. Willie Cauley-Steins wingspan is 7’4″. Chandler’s is 7’3″, and DeAndre clocks in at an absurd 7’6″. These long arms allow these guys to get up and bother shots even if they don’t time things perfectly. Also complicating things is that Poeltl doesn’t have very impressive hops, something smaller guys like Tristan Thompson use to still be a factor blocking shots. While his overall standing reach is good, I wonder how effective a rim protector he can be. Now, that’s not the only aspect of defense, and Poeltl is very mobile, which could help him be like a mini- Marc Gasol against the PNR. But physical tools are huge for me in projecting the safety of declaring a prospect a future defensive ace. To you, which is more important? The lack of elite athleticism, or the high level of mobility and defensive IQ?

Chris: His mobility and defense IQ should come in handy, especially as the league evolves to increasingly involve big men in pick-and-roll defense. If Poeltl can offer his coach some flexibility in terms of coverage in those spots, that’s obviously valuable. I’m not as worried about elite athleticism with big men as long as they’re capable of playing above the rim, which I think Poeltl should be able to do just fine.

I’m still a believer in Poeltl’s ability to be a strong rim protector even if he’s missing the elite wingspan that’s characterized other prospects. While his block rate slide to 4.8 percent as a sophomore, he posted a strong 8.9 rate as a freshman when he was playing a role much more similar to the one I think he’ll play in the NBA. That defensive upside and his ability to operate as a pick-and-roll big on offense are the things that make him such an attractive prospect to me, especially given the quality of the class.

Trevor: I definitely think that’s true. Poeltl may not be a prototypical NBA rim protector, but he does have a future as a versatile defensive big who can at least make an occasional impact offensively. However, I think those question marks surrounding his athleticism and offensive impact make the guys at his same level, like Jamal Murray and Kris Dunn, slightly safer picks. Dunn and Murray both have sure-fire NBA skills – Dunn with passing and on-ball defense, Murray with outside shooting – that I think are safer bets to translate to the next level than Poeltl’s post game or PNR defense. I also think fit makes a huge impact. If Milwaukee was picking 6th, I would have no problem putting him there. But because Denver and Sacramento both have multiple young big prospects to build around, I could easily see Poeltl sliding if Phoenix and New Orleans pass on him. It will be interesting to see how he fairs athletically at the combine, and how the lottery order could impact his ability. But for now, I am going to be conservative, and keep Poeltl in the back end of the top 10.