2016 NBA Draft Debate: Wade Baldwin or Tyler Ulis?

The middle of the 2016 NBA Draft’s first round is full of prospects of similar skill level and position. That makes for some interesting debates over certain position groups. Point guard has two options that could go anywhere from the late lottery to the early 20s in the first round, and both come from the SEC. Wade Baldwin IV and Tyler Ulis are both interesting prospects who don’t fit the prototypical point guard mold, and could be interesting in the right spot. Draft experts are somewhat torn over which prospect is better overall, so Chris Stone and I decided to try to get closer to a consensus position via e-mail, and break down what makes each prospect tic.

Trevor (@IllegalScreens): Chris, last week we argued over Jakob Poeltl, and weren’t really able to move each other off of our stances. This time should be a little less hostile, mainly because to me, this is one of the harder draft comparisons to make this year. Wade Baldwin of Vanderbilt and Tyler Ulis of Kentucky are both guys who should go at some point in the late lottery or shortly thereafter, and I have a hard time deciding which prospect is the better option for teams looking for point guard help. Both guys are basically foils of each other – Ulis is the 5’9″ jitterbug with great penetrating and better college production, while Baldwin is massive at 6’4″ with a 6’10” wingspan, bringing excellent transition play, but more potential than substance.

Big Board 4.0 has Ulis 19th and Baldwin 22nd, but in our mock drafts for FanSided we’ve had both all over the place, from Ulis going 12th to the Utah Jazz to Baldwin falling to the Denver Nuggets at number 19. You seem to be more partial to taking Ulis off the board first, as him going 14th to the Chicago Bulls is one of your go-to picks. What do you like best about Ulis’s game and potential?

Chris (@cstonehoops): I think I’ve come around a bit more on Ulis since we released that Big Board and a big part of it (other than a Chicago kid once again being the Bulls’ point guard) has just been falling in love with his ability to command a game. Ulis does an excellent job of probing defenses to help find openings for his teammates and does so without committing many mistakes. For example, while Ulis and Baldwin have similar assist rates, the Kentucky guard turned it over on just 13.0 percent of possessions compared to Baldwin’s 19.7 percent.

Potential, though, is where this one gets messy because Baldwin likely has a higher upside than Ulis in large part because there just aren’t many All-Star caliber players who are 5-9 in the NBA, but it’s hard for me to imagine Ulis not being a rotation player at the next level even if that means he only amounts to a solid backup point guard. In my mind, that floor is worthwhile in the middle of the first round.

I noticed you’ve also got Ulis going above Baldwin. What sticks out to you about him?

Trevor: Ulis’s offensive production is clearly better than what Baldwin was able to put together. He was a better finisher even though he had a clear size disadvantage, and he is much more polished in the pick-and-roll and within a halfcourt offense.

The biggest thing that sticks out to me about Ulis, though, is that he was an excellent collegiate defender on the ball. It’s not easy to win Defensive Player of the Year for your conference as a point guard; it’s even harder to win that award at 5’9″. Ulis’s height means there’s concern about him getting overpowered by bigger guards, but his quick hands, great footwork, and gritty mentality should lend to him being passable on that end. If he can be passable there, it’ll allow him the opportunity to make a big impact offensively. But are we maybe overthinking this? Baldwin has a 6’10” wingspan, good lateral quickness and solid hands. He’s definitely going to be a better defender at the NBA level than Ulis, right?

Chris: Almost certainly. The physical tools heavily favor Baldwin. Guards with 6-10 wingspans aren’t very plentiful, and although Baldwin is only 6-4, he should have a shot defending both back court positions at the next level because of his length. Meanwhile, even though Ulis was a good college defender, what you said about his size versus NBA opponents rings true. He’s really going to struggle against stronger guards in the league. Think about it. The best 5-9 player in the league right now is Boston’s Isaiah Thomas and sure, Ulis is a better defender than Thomas, but the Celtics go out of their way to hide Thomas on the defensive end.

Given the talk of Baldwin’s defensive potential, what do you think his ceiling is in the league? Can he be a starting point guard or better?

Trevor: I think he can be a starter-level point guard if everything goes right. Baldwin’s major improvement areas have to come with positioning and comfort in the pick-and-roll, two things that should be coachable at the next level. He’s excellent running the break in transition, and he should be able to play off the ball a little bit due to his excellent three-point shooting, which I think will stay solid in the NBA even with his inconsistent release. He will likely need a couple of years to really improve his decision-making and finishing (which is a concern because he really should be better than he is due to his athleticism alone), but offensively I like him as a point guard in a high-pace motion-style offense. Defensively, as we’ve discussed, he’s set up to be a really quality on-ball defender who can defend both guard positions. Given the time to mature and learn, he should comfortably get there.

Baldwin has a lot of fluidity in what he could fit into offensively, because he’s more raw. With Ulis being more polished, what do you see his role as in the NBA?

Chris: The biggest limiter for Ulis is his size. His ceiling is as an All-Star (a la Isaiah Thomas), but there’s only a really small chance that he can get there. We’re talking less than five percent given that only two 5-9 players have ever made the All-Star Game. Ulis’ most likely role is as a backup point guard who can come off the bench to run the offense against second units. Sure, there’s a chance he’ll end up as a starter, but he’ll be at his best when he doesn’t have to defend much larger players and can operate frequently with the ball in his hands. That being said, I think there’s a really high likelihood that he fulfills that role and does it well for quite some time, which is why I think he’s worthy of a late lottery pick.

With all of this being said, let’s briefly about where these guys might end up. I’ve fallen for Ulis to Chicago late in the lottery because the Bulls need a point guard and the narrative fit is just too strong to ignore. I’ve also had Baldwin headed to Denver for a couple of mock drafts now. The Nuggets could use a backup point guard to help spell Emmanuel Mudiay and I can also see Baldwin playing next to Mudiay for stretches. What’s your ideal scenario for them?

Trevor: I like the Baldwin/Denver fit, only because Baldwin reminds me a ton of D.J. Augustin in terms of style, and Augustin was a flamethrower next to Mudiay after coming to Denver from the Thunder. However, I don’t really see a chance that Baldwin drops out of the lottery, because I think he’s an even better fit in Chicago than Ulis. Baldwin should have excellent defensive versatility, something Chicago’s front office likes to have, and I think his fast-paced tempo and outside shooting really fit what I imagine Fred Hoiberg will eventually want to do offensively, even better than Ulis.

Ulis, meanwhile, would make for a good fit in Utah, where his command of the game and defensive hustle would make him a Quin Snyder favorite. The Jazz have really struggled for a steady hand, and while they still have Trey Burke and Dante Exum, the questions surrounding both’s futures with the club mean that the Jazz could use another hand in the backcourt, particularly one that’s as comfortable leading an offense as Ulis.

At the end of the day, I think we’ve determined that Ulis and Baldwin are very close. Ulis probably has the higher floor, but Baldwin likely has the higher ceiling, and how they end up being drafted will likely depend on team fit. Either option should net the team an interesting prospect, someone who should at least have a spot in the rotation in their near future.