Rebuild and Retain: Chicago Bulls
After another injury-riddled campaign and an uncomfortable coaching transition, the Chicago Bulls became one of the final teams to fall out of the Eastern Conference playoff race this year. They were officially eliminated from contention on April 10th, but in reality, their top-heavy approach to team-building had them grasping for straws all season as they struggled to hover around .500.
The dismissal of Tom Thibodeau after last season despite his .647 winning percentage as head coach over five seasons was lauded by many as somewhat necessary. Those who praised the move cited his head-scratching minutes load on players like Luol Deng, Jimmy Butler and Joakim Noah, as well as his predictable and inefficient offensive style.
A well-liked, successful college coach and former NBA player, Fred Hoiberg seemed like the perfect candidate to coax a different sort of offensive energy out of this Bulls team. However, after mishandling the frontcourt rotation right out of the gate by benching former MVP vote-getter Noah, the team never seemed to coalesce around Pau Gasol before another set of injuries derailed the seasons of Butler, Rose, Noah and others.
Staring into the eyes of an offseason that will feature commitment decisions on long-time Bulls like Noah and short-term studs like Gasol, the Bulls are one franchise basically tasked with deciding on its future in the coming months.
That being said, there seems no better time to feature the Bulls in the next installment of our Rebuild and Retain series, in which we go through each NBA team not considered a title contender and assess the young players on their roster. In order for the next iteration of this Chicago team to be competitive, they must develop the impressive package of youngsters on the team already, and continue to intelligently assess talent in future player acquisition.
Note: Only players on their rookie contracts will be considered for this series. If a team has signed a player to a second contract, that more than likely means that they are considered a core member of the roster.
CORE PIECES
Nikola Mirotic
Acquired in a 2011 draft-day trade, Bulls fans had to wait four years for the bearded Montenegrin to come over from the Spanish team Real Madrid. It’s fair to say watching Mirotic explode into Rookie of the Year candidacy behind a flurry of pump fakes and scowls was one of the more enjoyable Bulls experiences in recent memory.
However, it can cloud one’s expectations for a guy like Mirotic to see his future through the lens of a surprisingly fun rookie year. Remember, “fun” doesn’t necessarily mean effective or efficient. For Mirotic, fun meant shooting 41% on field goals and a nasty bout of the turnovers to the tune of an 11% turnover rate. It also meant a proclivity for shots like this that go in far less often than one would hope:
A gunner of that variety probably shouldn’t be 6’10”. Of course, when they do go in, we find ourselves back at that “fun” word:
Or, if passing is more your thing, he has tremendous eye for playmaking that has been nicely drawn out of him from his work next to Noah and Gasol:
Of course, Mirotic’s ability to move out of the realm of exciting and into that of the terrifying force he can become is predicated upon his ability to defend inside (and make more shots, of course). Matchups against the bigger stretch fours of the league (Patrick Patterson, for example) are already manageable for Mirotic because of how well he can use his upper body and move his feet against slower guys. However, he’s extremely easy to exploit in the pick and roll when he has to manage dual responsibilities against quick guards and roaming big men:
His attempts at rim protection tend to end in a lot of flailing and little else, largely due to his unwillingness to hold position and use his body as much as his hands:
If Mirotic can add the necessary muscle to bang down low, he can be dangerous. Considering he likely won’t even be asked to play the five at any point with the roster around him containing several other able, bulkier bigs, this task seems demonstrably possible. And if he gets that shot to an elite level, please prepare the greater Chicago area for the possibility of a nuclear emergency.
Bobby Portis
Portis might already be the Bulls’ most prized young possession. A first round pick last year, Portis wowed from Summer League on through the preseason before earning consistent time almost from the word go this year. With Noah and Mirotic both out for prolonged chunks of the season, Portis was afforded the opportunity to prove himself over the course of his entire rookie season.
Playing largely next to other bench guys (763 minutes next to Doug McDermott specifically, per nbawowy), Portis’ play was often the most exciting thing happening on the court. Handling time at both the four and the five, Portis showed an ability to defend, shoot and run that portends a more modern offensive look in Chicago for at least the next few years.
If a player already has adept mobility and intelligence, molding that player becomes a much simpler task:
Unfortunately, with Portis, you’re also starting with whatever this indecisive, ball-stopping mess should be called:
Defensively, Portis contributed 1.3 win shares and some aggressive rebounding, but struggled, as many rookies do, with juggling assignments and making split-second decisions:
In Portis, the Bulls have a young first-round talent who contributed in the first year of a rookie deal to a winning team. Say what you want about his further experimentation with three-point shooting (only 30% on 52 attempts this year) or whether he has the size to survive at center over the long term, but he has already shown himself to be an able rotation big. To have that in a rookie is among the biggest wins possible for a team that hasn’t picked higher than No. 16 since Derrick Rose was selected first overall in 2008.
DEVELOPMENTAL PROJECTS
Doug McDermott
McDermott, the NCAA’s all-time leader in points scored, carried the heavy nickname of Dougie McBuckets before ever coming into the NBA. When the Bulls traded two picks (Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris) to get him, they added another dose of high expectation to his yet-to-begin career. By the time McDermott actually began playing in NBA games, he was destined to underwhelm.
He is the NBA’s new archetypal tweener; enough shooting and scoring skill to be a handful for his size, but not quite enough quickness or strength on defense to switch pick and rolls or post up when given a mismatch. In fact, until seeing signs of growth this year, there was no instance where Dougie was playable on defense, and he had little more than a sweet stroke to throw at teams offensively. In a probing and passing offense like the Bulls’, he was unable to earn consistent minutes in his rookie year, tallying only 320 over 36 games behind guys like Tony Snell and Mike Dunleavy, Jr. on the depth chart.
Watching him defend other small forwards, it’s still pretty easy to see why:
His darting inattention causes him to lose his man far too easily, and he lacks the lateral quickness to recover. However, he has made strides in this area. As Zach Lowe noticed early in the season, McDermott made obvious gains in the sort of Hoberman Sphere contractions that are necessary within the Bulls suffocating defensive scheme:
His offensive reputation has come alive and begun to breath as his playing time has stabilized around twenty minutes per game. Nearly every player in Chicago red has the green light when they get their shot, the motion around them having bled out a just-open-enough look. With a player like McDermott, you can count on that shot going in more often than not:
If (and it’s a big IF) McDermott’s defense can continue to improve such that he can stay with wings and, at the very least, rotate well enough to be trusted to not cede bunches of points in the pick and roll, Chicago could have a long-term offensive rotation piece that can fit next to nearly any ball-dominant star.
E’Twaun Moore
It’s not often that a talented young player like E’Twaun Moore plays for three teams over the course of his rookie contract, but Moore has been victimized by team trajectory such that he now finds himself playing for his basketball life in Chicago.
Early-season reports out of Chicago had teammates fighting for Moore’s spot in the starting rotation with Mike Dunleavy, Jr. out, but it was often injuries to Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler that thrust him into that role. Moore started 22 games for Chicago this year, averaging a 12/3/3 in those contests. He seems the obvious replacement for a long line of small Bulls’ offensive ignitors, with the defensive work ethic to stay put.
Moore’s value on the offensive end comes from his shooting ability and pick and roll intelligence. Often, they work hand-in-hand:
Moore shot 45% on the threes this season, and darts around the floor well enough to create his own mid-range look more often than not. On the other end, he fights well through picks, and maintains the balance and vision to finish the job after a recovery or rotate over to help his helper:
Justin Holiday
Somehow, for the price of a second-rounder and franchise lifer Kirk Hinrich, the Bulls received the young wing and a $3 million trade exception in a three-way deal that also saw Shelvin Mack go to the Jazz. This all coming after many lauded the Holiday signing by Atlanta as one that could possibly end similarly to that of DeMarre Carroll — the development of the young wing into a rotation mainstay and two-way difference-maker.
Now, that obligation lies with the Bulls, and they seem more than eager to give Holiday the chance to succeed. Holiday played in 27 games after being traded to Chicago, shooting 43% on his three-point opportunities but grading as below average defensively according to nearly every advanced metric (only 0.5 defensive win shares, a 0.2 defensive box plus-minus, and a 106 individual dRTG).
He has the physical gifts necessary to be an above-average individual defender, though. His quickness in switching assignments and rotating along the perimeter is exemplary, and his length parlays itself into unexpected contests:
He understands where and how to be on offense, constantly getting under guys with his body and using his arms well on opponents’ drives to the hoop. His length is downright bothersome on double-teams and block attempts, and he’s quick in all facets of defense.
Offensively, he’s an unsculpted product. He can be effective in transition:
But is severely limited in situations that don’t feature him in semi-transition like the above video or as a spot-up shooter (42% on these looks, per NBA.com). He seems ripe for a test drive in the post, trying out moves taken from the Greek Freak long-limbed flail-book. Seeing what Holiday can become is hugely important for the short-term future of the Bulls.
THE PROBABLY-NOTS
Tony Snell
Until this year, you probably would have bet money on Snell being the longest-tenured Bull of all the young players on the roster. He fits their mold so well; good ball-mover, decent shooter, aggressive defender. He wasn’t able to take advantage of the prolonged absence of Mike Dunleavy Jr. this year and at times lost his spot in the rotation to both Doug McDermott and E’Twaun Moore.
Unfortunately, Snell has been merely average as a shooter and pretty terrible at everything else over his three year career. He has one year left on his contract to prove that he can be more than a stopgap, and he now has both McDermott and Holiday breathing down his neck, both with proven skills better than those Snell has showcased so far. It doesn’t look great for him at this point.
Cameron Bairstow
The big Australian has logged less than 200 minutes at the pro level, and is a largely unknown commodity. However, he finds himself in the same unenviable position as Snell, having already been surpassed by two guys (Portis and Cristiano Felicio) in the Bulls long-term plans. Alas, we really know too little to make a judgment call, as Pau Gasol stunted nearly any chance at long-term growth for the bigs on Chicago’s roster who couldn’t contribute right away.
Bairstow might never get the chance to show what he can do on the court, but considering the Bulls’ other options, they might be making the right decision on that front.
Cristiano Felicio
You know a guy’s new or unknown if the local broadcasting crew mispronounces or misstates a player’s name. I counted two instances several minutes apart in a game shortly after Felicio’s late-season return from injury in which Neil Funk called Felicio “Feliciano”. Not a great sign if you’re trying to understand how he impacted the team.
The problem with Felicio is twofold- he’s already 23 despite only having played this season at the NBA level, and it just so happens that this is the same year that the Bulls drafted a guy who does a lot of the things Felicio does well better than Felicio. Felicio, however, played hard and contributed unexpectedly in a number of games this year. His per-36 numbers (12 and 12 with a couple blocks) are exciting, but he fouls a ton and plays small for his considerable size (6’10”, 275 pounds).
He’s an interesting wildcard.
The Bulls can rebuild in a pinch if they expect Jimmy Butler to maintain his two-way dominance and stay healthy. The latter might be too much to ask of him, but they’re paying him the max to prove he can do all of that and keep the team afloat as a contender.
The roster has the makings of a truly monstrous offensive squad, and Hoiberg was brought in to install exactly that kind of infrastructure. Little things like Portis’ shooting ability, the duo of Mirotic and McBuckets’ ability to play down a position, and the post-Rose point guard can be sorted out, but overall, the Bulls maintain the sort of versatile roster and long-term flexibility (Noah and Gasol can leave this summer, with Rose following them in 2017) to pull a retool and avoid a hard stop tear-down.