Bradley Beal: The soon to be divisive max player
By Cole Zwicker
I’m convinced Twitter is going to break this summer. Like, legit shatter. If Gordon Hayward’s 4-year $63M max contract drew ire in 2014 (and somehow still does), what is the response going to be when Harrison Barnes gets 4 years, $92,142,330? This summer’s projected $22M cap spike is unprecedented and the divisiveness as to what player deserves what amount has already begun. Bradley Beal — still only 22-years old — recently entered the frame, telling the Washington Post “I feel like I’m a max player.” Critical discussion ensued, including Tracy McGrady chiming in with mass (unsupported in this instance) skepticism, prompting this post.
As a brief point, assessing player contract salary amount is all about relativity. “Is Player A underpaid, overpaid, or properly paid in relation to what?” This could be relative to past performance, future performance indicators, position, age, the salary cap or the current market. While all these components are important, the current market is the most relevant driving force to assessing contract amount. A player is paid what the market deems that player’s worth is. This is too often forgotten, and should be kept in mind as we move forward into unprecedented cap space terrain.
Back to Beal. I never thought it possible for a 22-year old silky, smooth shooter who has flashed all-star offense and two-way ability to fly under the radar in a shooting league, but that’s exactly what has happened with Beal due to consistent injuries. In fairness, a chronic stress reaction in the right leg that could have permanent minute monitoring repercussions is an incredibly serious disincentive to invest considerably in. However, I feel as though Beal’s potential has gone overlooked and has fallen by the wayside of the “he doesn’t deserve max money” narrative. The following will hash out who Bradley Beal currently is as a player, and look into what kind of contract options he faces this summer, including how the Wizards (or others) can build language into Beal’s contract to limit risk of re-injury and make a max deal more palatable.
Bradley Beal, the Player
Most people look at Beal and see the number 81: the number of games he has cumulatively missed over the course of his four-year career. They see a player who takes too many long twos who rarely gets to the basket, doesn’t draw fouls and can’t defend bigger NBA wings. Some of those criticisms are fair, but Beal is working to improve on these weaknesses
Progression:
*Per www.basketball-reference.com and www.nba.com/stats
In 2015/16, Beal drove to the basket more than any previous year of his career. Similarly, he also got to the free throw line at a greater rate than the prior two years and took substantially less long twos, exhibiting a three-year high in 3pt attempt rate. Some of this is system-based: prior to this last season Randy Wittman crafted the offense around mid range jump shots, many sets resulting in Beal getting the balls on dribble hand-offs to shoot around the elbows. The system/approach shifted this season with Wittman playing smaller lineups and spacing the floor more, resulting in more 3pt attempts for Beal, and a career high efficiency/shooting year. Beal is really only scratching the surface of his potential, and if new coach Scott Brooks continues to tailor his system more to Beal’s strengths, his efficiency numbers will rise.
Offense: As a player archetype, Beal is a two-way wing secondary-handler with the ability to create offense for himself/playmake for others some and carry the offense for stretches. Those players don’t grow on trees.
*Per www.nba.com/stats
- Shooting: Beal can shoot the hell out of the ball off the catch in spot up situations with a quick and fluid release. You’d like to see his off the screen efficiency improve a bit, which is a paramount part of any secondary handler/wing, but he certainly has the shooting pedigree to improve there. Beal isn’t an elite off the dribble shooter like a McCollum type (he wasn’t at Florida either), so he needs to trade more of those midrange pull up twos for either dribble pull up 3s, rim attacks or spot up 3s, a process he’s already begun. But he does show flashes shooting 3s off the dribble, an incredibly rare scheme-changing skill.
- Creation: Beal shows promise creating in isolation for himself. He is a slippery player with a plus handle who thrives going left, which is hard to guard. He changes speeds with some definite shake, overcompensating some for his lack of elite burst. Defenders have to respect his shot and trail over picks, so he can create an advantage attacking out of pick and roll. He’s consistently average in pick and roll finishing metrics; I’d wager largely due to his plethora of pull-up twos at an average percentage. He is definitely a secondary-handler though as he does not possess the vision, decision-making or passing chops to command an offense full time (which he doesn’t have to).
- Finishing: Armed with a compactly built frame, Beal has the strength and ambidexterity to finish at the rim. He’s not an elite vertical athlete, but above average bounce with an array of crafty finishes with either hand can get you a long way if you can absorb contact around the rim. Beal has proven to be an adept finisher at the rim, where he even sports a runner and floater game. The problem has been the willingness to get there.
Defense: Quietly, Beal has posted two positive DRPM numbers in 2013/14 and 2014/15, and it’s easy to see why. At a little under 6-5 with a 6-8 wingspan and compact 207 pound frame, Beal has the tools and toughness to be a moderately plus defender. He’s a fluid athlete who slides well in an athletic stance, and can really battle in the post with his frame. He has trouble tracking players around screens at times and is no match for the elite bigger wings in the post, but Beal brings an above average, non-elite defensive package to the table, and that will suffice if his offense truly takes off.
Overall, Beal has a strong baseline of skills as a 22-year old. He can shoot, dribble, playmake in PNR, and defend adequately. He doesn’t need the ball to thrive, but can thrive with the ball in doses. That’s exactly the kind of player you want paired next to a John Wall archetype, and with the league continuing to downgrade rendering perimeter size often less of an issue, Beal’s lack of plus height becomes less of an issue by the year.
Relative to the 2016 free agent class, Beal offers the most two-way secondary handler ability in the class who can shoot behind only Batum. There is still upside here if health cooperates, and legit upside at that.
With the above player evaluation in mind let’s turn now to the contractual aspect of Beal’s impending free agency this summer.
Max Contract/Contract Options
Beal, as a projected restricted free agent (if tendered a $7,471,412 qualifying offer, which is a shoe-in obviously) accruing 4 years of service on June 30th, will be eligible for the 0-6 tier years of service max, as he did not meet the criteria for the Rose Rule. Under the projected $92 million cap in the 2016/17 cap year, doing some reverse engineering Beal’s starting max figure is unofficially around $21,579,000. His full range of contract options and figures are outlined in the table below:
The Wizards elected not to extend Beal in order to maximize cap space this summer by capitalizing on Beal’s “cap value”, ala the Spurs with Kawhi Leonard this past offseason. More specifically, Beal’s free agent amount cap hold is $14,236,685 (250% of his $5,694,674 salary in 15/16), and the difference between his hold and potential max of $21,579,000 is $7,342,315. That latter figure is his “cap value” to the Wizards, permitting them to maximize free agent spending by that extra amount and then go over the cap to re-sign Beal to a greater figure given his status as a qualifying free agent (or full bird rights).
The Wizards were and still may be intent on pursuing Kevin Durant, but that was always a pipe dream. If Washington skins the roster outside of the 5 guaranteed contracts and Beal’s cap hold, they’ll have a projected $29,510,634 in cap space to spend on free agents (includes six $543,471 minimum roster charge cap holds):
*Contract input information derived from www.basketballinsiders.com
As a carrot for waiting until Washington can utilize their full cap room before going over the cap to sign Beal, the Wizards might give Beal a 15 percent trade kicker or a player option after year four upon maxing him.
There is still an elephant in the room in regards to whether the Wizards (or any team) want to bite the bullet and give Beal a fully guaranteed max salary. The Wizards could take another route for risk control, which will now be explored.
Alt. Contract Structure: Potential Use of an Exhibit 3
There is not a great deal of publicly known precedent for the use of a contract clause to limit guarantee amount based on a previously known recurring injury, but thanks to Chris Mannix at the Vertical, we have one now with Brook Lopez:
An example is Brooklyn’s recent deal with Brook Lopez, the skilled center who has been plagued by foot injuries. Last summer, Lopez signed a three-year, $60 million deal to stay with the Nets. The team protected itself by inserting language that permitted them to cut Lopez’s salary by 50 percent in 2016-17 and 75 percent in 2017-18 if Lopez suffers another significant injury to the fifth metatarsal in his right foot, with benchmarks Lopez can hit each season to fully guarantee subsequent years.
This reads implicitly like an Exhibit 3 amendment to the Uniform Player Contract, which can be found in Article II Section 3 (f) of the 2011 NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement, the pertinent clauses displayed as the following:
(f) By agreeing upon provisions (to be set forth in Exhibit 3 to a Uniform Player Contract) limiting or eliminating the player’s right to receive his Base Compensation (in accordance with paragraphs 7(c), 16(a)(iii), and 16(b) of the Uniform Player Contract) when the player’s disability or unfitness to play skilled basketball is caused by the re-injury of one or more injuries sustained prior to, or by the aggravation of one or more conditions that existed prior to, the execution of the Uniform Player Contract providing for such Base Compensation. Notwithstanding the foregoing, with respect to Player Contracts entered into or extended after the date of this Agreement (but in the case of Extensions only with respect to the extended term), the provisions set forth in Exhibit 3 to a Uniform Player Contract shall not apply for a Season in the event such Contract is terminated during the period from the February 1 of such Season through the end of that Season.
Combining the Lopez example with the CBA rule and applying it to Beal, the Wizards could structure Beal’s contract similarly by including this Exhibit 3 language to limit the risk of Beal triggering his stress reaction in his right leg again by giving them a pseudo get out of jail (not entirely) free card. Per the language in the Exhibit 3 clause and other rules on contract guarantees (mainly that a contract can’t have a higher guarantee percentage in a successive/future year), Beal’s contract could conceivably have the following guarantee structure (permitting a partial guarantee for re-injury to his right leg):
- 2016/17: Fully guaranteed
- 2017/18: 75% Partially Guaranteed for Re-Injury
- 2018/19: 50% Partially Guaranteed for Re-Injury
- 2019/20: 25% Partially Guaranteed for Re-Injury
- 2020/21: Non-Guaranteed for Re-Injury
There are many ways to structure this to limit the risk for Washington or another team. Beal would have to be waived (and presumably clear waivers) prior to February 1st of the given year, and depending on the next CBA language Washington MIGHT be able to stretch his remaining guaranteed salary should the worst happen.
Again, there is not a lot of precedent to work with in this arena. It was assumed that Andrew Bynum had a similar clause based on his recurring knee injuries when he signed with Cleveland in 2013, but that contract structure was a traditional partial guarantee, with only $6 million guaranteed if waived on or before January 7th (allowing 48 hours to clear waivers prior to the league wide contract guarantee date on January 10th). Thus, the guarantee amount wasn’t contingent on a recurring injury, but rather simply being on the roster at that time. It seems like Beal would have more leverage as an attractive FA to demand more protection.
There’s also a real chance that another team will just throw a fully guaranteed maximum offer sheet at Beal if Washington is offering this protected structure, which will negate the exercise entirely. The point is merely to outline the various options available to Beal, Washington, and other teams.
In closing, Beal is a soon to be 23-year old and a rarity in this projected to be insanely inefficient 2016 free agent market, being a player who has flashed all-star ability but has not yet consistently reached that peak, leaving upside to grow. There’s something here if you wade through the narratives, and if a contract can be structured to mitigate the risk of Beal’s admittedly terrifying recurring right leg issues, this could end up being one of the better deals of the summer.