Roundtable: Top 10 picks, Marquese Chriss, and more

With the NBA Draft just around the corner, our guys got together to answer some of the key questions surrounding the big event.

1. Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram seem like locks to be the first two picks in the draft, so, what should the Boston Celtics do with the third pick? What will they do?

Chris Stone (@cstonehoops): Boston should explore trading the third pick as part of a package for an established star, but it’s hard to imagine a deal coming to fruition. If that fails, the Celtics should draft Dragan Bender, the 18-year old Croatian with plenty of upside. What will they do? My current guess is they’ll take a college prospect like Kris Dunn, Jamal Murray, or Jaylen Brown. The reason? General manager Danny Ainge has yet to draft an international prospect for the Celtics in the first round (Lucas Noguiera was selected for the Mavericks in 2013).

Evan Wheeler (@EvanWheelz): The Celtics have a plethora of options at their disposal for the 2016 draft. They currently have five of the top 40 selections in this draft, starting with the 3rd overall pick. I expect Boston to try hard to find a trade partner on June 23rd and their target will be a “proven star”. Jimmy Butler, Danilo Gallinari and Kevin Love all would be ideal targets for them, packaging picks 3, 16 and 23 to try to get ahold of one of those three.

Ultimately, Boston probably ends up staying at number three and taking either Dragan Bender or Jamal Murray. Kris Dunn wouldn’t make much sense within the structure of their current roster and three is way too high for someone like Jaylen Brown or Buddy Hield in my opinion.

Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck): I think Bender is a complete no-brainer selection for Boston. His long-term upside is massive, he’s a flexible two-way player that fits their team like a glove and they can afford to ease him along more than any other team with a high-value pick this year. Whether they see it that way is up for debate, and I believe almost nothing that leaks out of Boston this time of year. Danny Ainge is a master of misdirection, so I won’t sit here and pretend I have a clue what he’s going to do.

Jonah Jordan (@_JonahJordan): If the Celtics are in fact keeping the pick, instead of trading for a star, it seems like Dragan Bender would be the best possible pick. If they miss on DeMarcus Cousins or Kevin Love taking Bender makes sense. He’s the most talented player on the board behind Simmons and Ingram, and would be perfect for what Brad Stevens is doing in Boston. The 7-foot-1 forward has a high ceiling on both sides of the ball because of his versatility, basketball IQ and overall athleticism.

Brendon Kleen (@BrendonKleen14): I agree with Stone here. The Celts have to make trading the pick a priority, as there is no one at 3 this year who has the upside of someone like DeMarcus Cousins. That being said, we won’t know any of that until draft night. I’ve somehow sold myself on Jaylen Brown either going to Boston or falling into the bottom half of the lottery. I think the way he thinks and plays fit nicely with what Brad Stevens is looking to do in Boston, and he injects athleticism into the squad immediately.

J.Z. Mazlish (@jzmazlish): If I were the Celtics, I would take Bender without much hesitation. Bender is clearly a top-3 talent in this draft in my eyes, and he doubles as a great fit with the current Celtics roster. Right now their bigs are all relatively one-dimensional either offensive (Sullinger/Olynyk) or defensive (Johnson) specialists, and Bender’s two-way versatility is desperately needed. Especially with their perimeter players shooting woes, adding a big man who can both stretch the floor and defend like Bender is exactly what the team needs. What they will do is a totally different story. Ainge has a history of not drafting international players and I would bet on him dealing the pick to the highest bidder.

Peter Nygaard (@RetepAdam): I’ve noted many times that Kris Dunn seems like the quintessential Danny Ainge pick, but unless they have a trade in the works, that’s probably unrealistic. However, with reports out there that the Sixers are extremely interested in Dunn at No. 3, this might be an opportunity for the Celtics to bring the KG trades full circle by acquiring the closest thing to a young Al Jefferson in Jahlil Okafor. Boston is one of the few landing spots that I think could actually really make things work with an offensive-minded center like Okafor, given their commitment to defense on the perimeter. If they stand pat, I think they take Dragan Bender or Jaylen Brown. Between the two, I’d go Bender.

2. Your favorite team has a top 10 pick. Which highly-ranked prospect could they take that would cause you to head to the local watering hole to drown your sorrows?

Stone: I’ll go with Jaylen Brown. There are a lot of tools there, but very little suggests that he’s worthy of a top 10 selection. He’s one of the most inefficient scorers in the draft class and while his potential defensive versatility is nice, it’s hard to justify his inclusion in the top 10 based on that alone.

Wheeler: Marquese Chriss. I’m a Nuggets fan so I would definitely understand why they would select Chriss. He’d fit a long term and short term need for them at the four, also giving them desperately needed shooting and spacing from that position. I just don’t buy Chriss as an elite prospect and think he isn’t worth a top ten selection.

Neubeck: Since my team has the No. 1 pick, any selection other than Ben Simmons would drive me to drink. That’s no disrespect to guys like Brandon Ingram and Dragan Bender, both of whom I like a lot, but you only get a chance at players like Simmons once in a blue moon. For the sake of this exercise I’ll echo Chris’ Jaylen Brown shout, but the field is the more accurate answer.

3. Marquese Chriss: boom or bust?

Stone: Obviously the answer is most likely somewhere in between, but I think Chriss is more likely to end up as a bust than as a star. His athleticism and shooting are attractive pieces, but the basketball IQ just isn’t there. Add in the defensive questions and the scale starts to tip in the wrong direction.

Wheeler: Bust for me, I haven’t bought into the Chriss hype at all. I’ve seen some mock drafts have him going as high as three to the Celtics and that baffles me. As my fellow colleague Chris Stone pointed out above, Chriss’ shooting and athleticism is appealing, but he doesn’t really have a good feel for the game and is so raw defensively. I think taking Chriss in the top ten would be a mistake for any team. Ultimately, Chriss will be a player who 3-5 years from now will make some franchise and GM look very stupid in my opinion.

Neubeck: I think it’s more likely he busts completely as compared to a few other players high on draft boards, but find it totally defensible to select him with a premium pick. This year is such a crapshoot that I can understand risking a home-run swing on Chriss, who if he puts it all together could be a force at the next level. Sure, you can find some contributors in the tier(s) below the big prizes this year, but why not roll the dice?

Jordan: I’m leaning boom, but I think it’s going to take some time. I don’t think he’ll light the world on fire his rookie season, maybe not even his second season. I completely agree with Kyle, this is a home-run swing that could workout down the line. This draft isn’t great so picking a player with a crazy amount of potential isn’t the worst idea.

Kleen: Boom, though probably more of the landmine variety than the nuclear. If he can develop his shot and at least protect the rim from the weak side right away, he’ll at the very least be a rotation difference-maker. Athletic guys are always risky, but he has at least a couple finer skills (the jump shot, a basic sense of passing) to make me excited.

Mazlish: Like Chris Stone said, the best answer here is almost certainly somewhere in between. If he ends up being drafted in the top-5 like the more recent hype is suggesting, I’m going to have to go with bust. It’s easier to envision a world in which he never catches up to the NBA game on both ends than one in which he improves dramatically from both a skill and mental perspective to become a star. I think he’s likely to end up as a pretty solid player, but his chances of being a star are oversold due to his athleticism – no other aspect of his skill or mental makeup suggests he’s a star.

Nygaard: I’d feel a lot better about him as a prospect if he weren’t an astonishingly bad rebounder. Wherever he ends up, it’s going to take a fairly Herculean coaching job to get him to a level that will justify his likely draft position. There are absolutely some tools there, and he’s incredibly young (he’ll be 18 at the time of the draft) and an exceptional athlete already, but if I’m going to hitch my team’s future to his wagon, he’d better have been a hell of an interview. I’m leaning bust.

4. Every year a top-tier prospect takes a bit of a fall. Last year, it was Justise Winslow who fell to 10. Who slips this time around?

Stone: Kris Dunn. I love his NBA potential, but most of the teams at the top of the draft (Boston, Phoenix, and Minnesota) already have established point guards, I could see Dunn taking a slight tumble and bringing some nice value to a team in the bottom half of the top 10 similar to Emmanuel Mudiay last year.

Wheeler: Dragan Bender. I’m big on Bender and think he’s easily one of the five best prospects in this class. However, the recent rise for whatever reason of Marquese Chriss, could directly affect the Croatian’s draft stock. I could see Bender falling to the 6-10 range, making him an absolute steal for any of the teams selecting in that area of the draft.

Neubeck: Bender is the safe pick here. Kristaps Porzingis’ success last season might have forced teams to take a closer look at overseas prospects this cycle, but there are plenty of GMs that still show discomfort in evaluating guys outside of the NCAA system. Add in the fact that several teams at the top already have big men they’re trying to build around, and Bender’s slide almost feels inevitable if he doesn’t go to Boston at No. 3.

Jordan: Dragan Bender has always had the most volatile draft stock out of the players in the top 10. If Bender doesn’t go to Boston at No. 3 I think there’s a possibility he could slide all the way to Denver at No. 7. I don’t see him having a Winslow-esque fall all the to No. 10 or even out of the top 10, but there’s a chance he slides. He was inconsistent and streaky in Israel which definitely makes those top teams nervous.

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Mazlish: The popular (and probably best) answer here is Bender, but I’m going to say Brandon Ingram doesn’t end up as a top-2 pick. In such a scenario he wouldn’t fall past 3, but even slipping from 2 would qualify as a pretty huge shock for Ingram. The Lakers infatuation with Buddy Hield isn’t not a thing, and neither is Buddy’s relationship with Kobe. I’m not expecting it, but I think people are underselling the chances of LA doing something crazy.

Nygaard: A lot of people are saying Dragan Bender, but I don’t know. I think there are too many teams linked to him right now for him to slip that far. It’s possible that he’s just the No. 2 or No. 3 guy on too everyone’s ballot, but with that much interest from different teams, I think he finds a safety net. Marquese Chriss, on the other hand, I’m less sure about. If he gets past Phoenix at No. 4, I don’t see Minnesota, New Orleans or Denver catching his fall.

5. Shoot your shot. What likely second round pick has the best chance of becoming an NBA starter?

Stone: There’s so much fluidity at the end of the first round that many of the top second rounders could end up being taken in the late first. My guess will be Caris LeVert. The Michigan guard has lottery level talent, but his nagging foot injury is a major question mark. If he can get healthy, he has the jumper, the passing chops, and the defensive potential to be a starter in the league.

Wheeler: This could be one of the best second rounds we’ve seen in Draft history, given the depth of this class and more importantly the amount of really solid international players in this class. Malcolm Brogdon is the easy pick because of his maturity, shooting and defensive ability. I’m going to go with Guerschon Yabusele though, he’s someone I’ve been banging the table for since last summer.

Yabusele reminds me a ton of Draymond Green, given his frame and attitude. He’s a component shooter whose only improving, a very good defender with good quickness for his size and a very skillful passer as well. I can see him thriving in a similar point-center type of role that Green has done in Golden State. Yabusele like Green, will be a player people will be scratching their heads on why he fell to the second round in a few years and is one of the gems in this class.

Neubeck: Patrick McCaw is one of my favorite prospects in this draft and one of the few guys I think has legitimate two-way potential. He sort of flew under the radar on a troubled UNLV team, but at his best he was a legitimate pest on defense and an offensive threat in pretty much every facet of the game. It’s rare to find a second-round guy who can distribute, shoot decently from outside and flourish in transition with the requisite physical tools for the next level. He needs to put weight on his frame and work on his shot selection, but all the other elements of a modern NBA wing are there.

Jordan: Virginia guard Malcolm Brogdon has some potential as a 3-and-D wing. The 6-foot-6 guard isn’t a great creator, but he is a great shooter. His game translating to the next level is the biggest question mark. If the right team gets a hold of him he could turn into a real role player.

Kleen: I like A.J. Hammons a whole lot. He was a four-year guy at Purdue, operating this year as the focal point of a system that used him pretty closely to how he’ll be used at the next level. He knows when to funnel the ball in and back out, can shoot from midrange, and will easily survive dropping back on pick and roll defense. He could make the most of ten minutes a night as soon as next year.

Mazlish: This is a deep enough draft that there are a lot of good answers here, and Patrick McCaw would be my best. Since Kyle already talked about him, I’ll operate under the assumption McCaw rises to the first round and go with his teammate Stephen Zimmerman. Zimmerman isn’t elite in any one area, but is a mobile and athletic guy with true center size and some offensive skill and feel. If he improves his basketball IQ on both ends and refines his jump shot a bit he could pretty easily develop into a two-way force to be reckoned with. Not enough people are giving him credit for how talented he is.

Nygaard: This exercise was so much easier when 90 percent of the guys being talked about as potential sleepers hadn’t squeezed their way into first round projections yet. Historically speaking, the answer is probably going to be a 3-and-D guy or an international center. I’ll go with the latter. Much of the talk surrounding Chinese prospect Zhou Qi lately has been about his age, as some teams have reportedly been suggesting that he may in fact be 3 or 4 years older than his listed age of 20. However, here are a few other numbers of note: 7-2 (his height); 7-8 (his wingspan); 10.7 (his block rate in 2014-15 — the highest in Chinese Basketball Association history); and .672 (his CBA-leading TS% this year). He’s also a buyout case, meaning teams that might otherwise take him in the first round will likely hold off until the second in order to gain more wiggle room to negotiate his terms. All things considered, I’m betting on the (presumably) 20-year-old kid with incredible length and considerable range. There are just some things you can’t teach.

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