Unleashing the true unicorn potential of Kristaps Porzingis
By Cole Zwicker
Rarely do 7-3 fluid athletes with insane 7-7 length arrive in the NBA with the skill and stretch potential to shoot, score and protect the rim. Kristaps Porzingis personifies the “unicorn” center archetype in what has become one of the most valuable and conducive pieces available for team building. A big who can lure their counterpart out of the paint on offense and enhance spacing via the creation of driving lanes is valuable, but if that player can also play defense in space and protect the rim with the capability of playing the five spot, that value is significantly magnified.
There are only a handful of unicorn fives in the league, rendering Porzingis already among elite company.
Porzingis took the league by storm last year and thrived initially more than most thought, by playing his ass off over the first few months and being widely associated with hustle plays like this:
His defensive prowess in terms of rim protection, ability to move in space and spatial awareness also exceeded expectations. When paired with his aesthetically appealing shot at his size, it rendered Chad Ford’s hybrid Durant/Dirk/Kirilenko comparison only 99.9 percent insane.
Still, with all his largely unexpected immediate success, it seemed like we were just getting a glimpse of a light in a forest of surrounding darkness. Pigeonholed into the archaic, low pace and half court emphasized triangle, Porzingis’ gravitational shooting force in the pick-and-pop game was destroyed (see below). Porzingis also only played 477 of his total 2,047 minutes as a true spread 5 without any of Lopez, O’Quinn, Amundson, or Seraphin on the court, a mere 23 percent of the time, per NBAWowy.com.
Everyone was pining for the Knicks to unleash Porzingis as a stretch 5 pushing the pace in a more open court pick-and-roll game, which is the crux of most NBA offenses. Instead, Porzingis had to endure two minus coaches, inconsistent benchings and the antithesis of modern NBA basketball.
We all know how the rest of the story goes. This summer the Knicks dumped $72 million over 4(!!!!) years into 31-year old injury plagued Joakim Noah, a spacing and scoring deficient five with no positional versatility. They then invested north of $48 million into Courtney Lee, who will at least rectify defensive and spacing issues and serve as a backcourt player with a two-way pulse this year. The Knicks went all-in on the present to regain respectability in building around now 32-year-old Carmelo Anthony’s timeline, instead of building around the just 21-year-old Porzingis’ timeline. It’s a choice I still disagree with, but it’s where we are.
Perhaps most influential of any move was the hiring of Jeff Hornacek, a touted basketball mind who just lost control of the reigns in Phoenix. Hornacek has noted he will keep triangle principles, but has also voiced his intention to push the ball, be flexible and play to the strengths of his team, per the great Ian Begley. While Porzingis will still primarily man the 4 spot, impeding his full potential, at least he is with a flexible coach and a center like Noah who can facilitate from the foul line extended, aiding Porzingis’ off-ball game:
Things might not be so bleak for the young light-bringer of Knicks Nation as long as certain components of what make Porzingis potentially great are emphasized. The following will explore how to unleash Porzingis’ unicorn potential in his current situation, mostly by way of his threat as a shooter.
Shooting On the Move/Off Screens
Porzingis has always possessed deep range, with the size to shoot over basically anyone with his high, quick and fluid release. What makes him potentially great as a shooter is his rare ability to shoot on the move and shoot running off screens, which for a 7-3 player capable of playing the 5 is a generational talent (in conjunction with his defense). He put his pre-catch footwork and rhythm tendencies, catching on the hop, or the 1-2, with clean mechanics along with the ability to square up on the move on film consistently playing for Sevilla:
The ability to extend this action beyond the three-point line obviously carries enhanced value, but Porzingis also demonstrated knowdown midrange potential here:
And again:
The Knicks actually used Porzingis quite frequently last year running off screens. He finished 6th in field goal attempts in this fashion amongst qualified bigs behind only Dirk, Anderson, Teletovic, Towns and Davis with 74, per synergy sports information provided via NBA.com. He totaled 84 finishing possessions off screens, comprising 7.5 percent of his total offense with a respectable 0.89 PPP, good for the 45th percentile. There is still volume potential for more usage, as Ryan Anderson by comparison finished at 10.5 percent frequency running off screens on 114 possessions. Porzingis should also see more looks because he and Towns are the only players in the above group capable of manning the 5 spot, where the true mobility advantage is.
There are simply few bigs with the mobility and closing speed to stay attached to Porzingis navigating around screens, and even athletic bigs like Anthony Davis can be caught unaware with a good screen to free KP (RIP Lopez’s screen-setting):
Most good teams run post ups primarily to draw defensive attention and pass to a more efficient spot up shot. Having weak side screening action involving a 4 or 5 running off a screen can be a devastating offensive wrinkle, where the opposing big either wants to stay in the paint or isn’t used to tracking on the perimeter:
The Knicks did have KP run off designed pin-downs occasionally, but it is something that should be implemented more. Players with the size and length like Durant have really thrived with sets like these:
A potential devastating play the Knicks could incorporate more is a flare screen for Porzingis. This can be done either in an early offense drag screen setting pushing the ball or as a primary action in half court offense:
Overall, Porzingis has rare fluidity to shoot on the move. His 51.8 TS% was actually outlier bad last year, which is why currently Porzingis’ shooting and finishing potential based on aesthetics outweighs real results (and one of the many reasons you shouldn’t compare him to Dirk, the best shooting big man ever). But by implementing more actions like this his success and gravitational pull will likely increase:
Pick-and-Roll Man Usage
The Knicks finished dead last in possessions finished by a pick-and-roll ball handler at 935, and 25th in possessions finished by a PnR roll man at 481, again per Synergy Sports. Porzingis was underutilized as a roll man because of scheme at 33rd amongst qualified bigs with 153 possessions and 127 FGAs, comprising only 13.7 percent of his possessions used. Comparatively, Myles Turner finished with a 27.8 percent frequency. KP was effective for a rookie in these settings, where his eFG% at 58.7 ranked 16th in the league amongst those finishing with at least 100 possessions.
Having a big who can pick-and-pop puts so much pressure on the defense, especially in side pick-and-roll situations. Most teams “ice” side PnRs, meaning the on-ball defender forces the ball handler to the sideline away from the screen, and the big man defending the screener drops back to contain dribble penetration. Doing so encourages an inefficient midrange shot and more importantly limits rotations from the other 3 defenders help side in defending PnR with only 2 people.
This coverage is exploitable with a big like Porzingis because he can shoot 3s, rendering much more ground to cover for bigs recovering to close out:
Love has no chance here with KP’s high, lightning quick release paired with the boost in space to travel. We see it again in the following clip with Diaw:
These side pick-and-roll opportunities involving KP create too much value to underutilize them to the extent New York did last year. They can also be implemented into middle pick-and-roll situations:
Trail 3 Transition Potential
The Knicks finished a porous 24th in pace last year with only 976 transition finishing possessions (26th) and a putrid 1.02 PPP (28th) per Synergy Sports. One of my favorite plays in the league last year was the Porzingis trail 3-pointer — though it was a rare sight with the Knicks walking the ball up constantly. There is so much chaos causing potential when defenses aren’t set, especially when it comes to having to track bigs behind the arc. Even here, one of the most savvy defensive teams of all time blows an assignment, resulting in a easy walk-in 3 for KP:
Maintain Self-Creation Usage
Porzingis sported a healthy 22.9 usage rate, good for 9th amongst qualifying power forwards per ESPN.com. Retaining a respectable usage amount with the more ball dominant Rose in tow, and Noah commanding the ball in foul line extended situations as a passer, will be paramount for development purposes.
For a 7-3 big, relative to other bigs his size, KP is a tremendously fluid and coordinated athlete. Relative to other playmaking fives like Towns, Aldridge and Cousins however, he doesn’t have the same short area quickness and agility with the ball or handling fluidity, being more stiff and a “shoot over the top” guy. Whether KP can ever be a high usage and efficient primary shot creator will depend entirely on his ability to man the 5 spot and/or shoot in the stratosphere of Dirk.
KP scored 0.76 PPP in isolation last season on 68 finishing possessions, good for the 40th percentile. 7-3 guys just shouldn’t be able to do this:
KP gets the slightest half step on one of the best athletes in the game, and for most that play results in a Davis block. With KP’s insane 7-7 wingspan he gets the requisite length extension to protect the ball from Davis. He also shows nimbleness and fluidity attacking closeouts, pertinent to a floor-spacer:
KP is also adept enough in the post (0.82 PPP on 168 finishing possessions, 44th percentile) to score on mismatches, and in certain matchups despite not having the lower body girth yet to anchor down low against stronger players. He can usually just shoot over basically anyone, but shows flashes of skill and shake to create enough separation to get his shot off undeterred:
This fake on Dirk is also pretty insane:
KP differs from other “unicorn” archetypes like Serge Ibaka and fellow draft mate Myles Turner in affording some level of playmaking via dribbling and passing. He had a few head-turning passes last year that he didn’t showcase playing for Sevilla:
His reads were simplified, being more stationary, and in a system like the triangle where he anticipated cuts and players were in his field of vision, but there were at least positive indicators on film despite his meh A/TO ratio.
Areas For Improvement
If KP can remedy his finishing issues, where he quietly struggled finishing on the move on non-dunk attempts through contact especially, it would drastically impact his efficiency:
He drew the foul here, but it’s a bunny shot and there were too many of these blown attempts last year, as exemplified in his shot chart:
I also want to see how he improves making reads on the move, attacking the basket.
Overall Takeaway
Porzingis looks like a unicorn big with hints of playmaking, who if utilized correctly moving off screens to shoot and operating as a pick-and-pop gravitational force, could really explode into a “no. 2 or co-no. 1 player on a championship team” type of talent; if the shooting is real. Giving him as many minutes at the 5 with Noah sitting, will only unleash his current impact and more importantly his long-term development. His surrounding situation and developmental success are definitely two components to track over the course of the season.