Unlocking Willie Cauley-Stein’s Optimal Role & Skill Potential
By Cole Zwicker
Few players are ever sure things in the draft. It’s why so many talent evaluation models use a ceiling v. floor outcome-based sliding scale in analyzing prospects. Translatable skill-sets and projectable NBA roles weigh heavily on the analysis process. The 2015 NBA Draft was absolutely stacked in the lottery with high projectable floor players, and perhaps no one player’s skill-set was easier to project than Willie Cauley-Stein’s.
Outlier athletes with positional size at the 5 position are safe bets to succeed, if there is a reasonably high defensive floor. It’s the one position in the league where the combination of size & athleticism can compensate for lack of skill and feel on offense, mostly because of role. Centers can thrive as screen-setters and finishers in lieu of on ball skills or shooting in ways that other positions cannot. Simply setting a screen and rolling hard to the rim for lob catches is more than enough (even deadly) to get by in the league, if you defend at a high level as a 5, and no one fits that archetype better than Cauley-Stein.
Even on a talent-laden Kentucky team, Cauley-Stein’s translatable skill-set was easy to spot. As a legitimate 7-footer with insane combine testing numbers, including a 31 inch no-step vert and 10.45 agility drill (better than a large amount of perimeter players) per the DraftExpress.com database, he is a freak vertical athlete for his size with incredibly rare speed and fluidity. His ability to track perimeter players and keep them in front was his most notable outlier ability in college, and for good reason:
This play is certifiably insane. No to be outdone, he did this just minutes later:
That’s a 7-footer running in stride with a speedy guard, and future NBA first round pick, for basically 94 feet. To round out his overall game he also consistently put plays like this tape:
You get the point. The league craves bigs who can defend both the interior protecting the rim and guard in space on the perimeter, while offering some offensive value (in this instance athletic lob catching). Cauley-Stein looked like an all-timer checking those boxes. His defensive value was also buttressed by the advanced stats, where his profile sported two top 15 all-time finishes in defensive box score plus minus, a top 55 block rate season, and a top 9 overall box score plus minus finish (the same stat where Anthony Davis and Karl Anthony-Towns rank 1 and 2 respectively), per sportsreference.com’s tracking since stat inception. Basically, he looked really safe and legit.
Factor in the Kings’ draft selections over the past two years and Willie’s projection is now murky. The appeal with Cauley-Stein was placing him in a Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks type role as a spread pick-and-roll dive man, where his gravitational pull as a lob catcher could be a pillar of an offense. Instead, WCS was drafted by the franchise already possessing the best traditional 5 in the league. The Kings would go on to sign Kosta Koufos, a traditional 5 in free agency with no positional versatility. To make matters worse, Sacramento doubled down in the 2016 draft, reaching for Greek 5 man Georgios Papagiannis with the 13th overall selection (who looked absolutely dreadful in Las Vegas) and selecting devoid of basketball IQ/solely a 5-man Skal Labissière 28th overall.
Basically, the Kings have everyone’s share of 5s, and seem compelled to play two “traditional” bigs at once, which is the diametric opposite of the situation WCS believers wanted to see him in. While Cauley-Stein’s optimal use is lost in his current situation, all is not lost. The following will illuminate how to extract maximum value from him in his current predicament, while in the process highlighting some under the radar skills.
Optimal Lineups/Spacing Implications
Spacing is sometimes overanalyzed, especially in situations where spacing can be manufactured like in Utah with a motion-based system. However, in some instances, certain pairings are just not salvageable in terms of spacing, such as pairing two traditional 5s together. Out of the 1412 minutes Cauley-Stein played as a rookie, 393 came playing next to Kosta Koufos, approximately 28 percent, per NBAWowy. This was often the spacing dynamic:
Cauley-Stein makes the shot here, but you can see the floor is cramped with the spacing deficient Koufos occupying the paint, allowing Lee to slide over and help. This happened too often last year, and this outcome was atypical. A similar dynamic occurred when paired with Quincy Acy (169 total minutes shared), where even though Acy takes threes and makes them at a reasonable rate (19-of-49 last year), no one respects him out there:
No one is even in the same stratosphere as Acy here, with his original man McGee literally in no man’s land (shocking) trying to muck up an action on the other side of the court. Extracting optimal value from WCS in these settings is virtually impossible.
A pairing with Cousins (596 minutes shared, 42 percent of WCS’ total minutes again per NBAWowy), while not optimal, at least makes the fit tenable with DC’s perimeter skill. Cousins was 3rd in the league with eight drives per game (defined as starting 20+ feet from the hoop and dribbling within 10 feet of the hoop in non transition settings) for players 6-7 or over, per NBA.com. To put that in context, he averaged more drives per game than wing handling dynamos Gordon Hayward and Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the next highest pure center mark was Jahlil Okafor with 2.7 drives per game. Cousins’ ability to attack in face up situations, extending beyond the arc with a fluid handle, and make plays made it possible for WCS to man the dunker position to salvage spacing:
And again:
Cousins took a combined 69 threes in his career prior to last season. Last year that number tripled to 210 at a respectable 33.3 percent clip. Teams started to respect Cousins out behind the arc, leading to plays like this:
McGee is glued to Cousins at the top of the key here, which is a new spacing development. We see it again in the following clip with Zaza Pachulia unwilling to fully rotate over from the weak side:
Compare that to the earlier set with Koufos in the paint and Lee rotating over to challenge.
Now, the Kings can manufacture plays due to Cousins’ perimeter development, such as the following designed double high formation to start the game against Portland that we often see the Clippers run:
Plumlee stays attached to Cousins in bear-hug fashion instead of dropping back to tag WCS on the dive, leaving WCS free reign to quickly dart into the lane for an easy lob. The Kings also mixed in early offense pick-and-rolls for WCS with Cousins as the trailer, again capitalizing on Cousins’ gravitational pull:
It’s a fair question whether parking Cousins, the most dominant interior scorer from a physique standpoint in basketball, 20+ feet from the basket is optimal use of his skill-set, but it’s really the only way to manufacture enough spacing to salvage an offense with two traditional bigs.
Overall, a Cauley-Stein/Cousins lineup looks at least workable, whereas pairing the former with Koufos is a virtual waste. Replacing Acy with newly signed stretch 4 Anthony Tolliver is a positive step for lineup spacing, which will hopefully lead the Kings to do more of the following.
Utilize WCS in Spread Pick-and-Roll With Cousins on the Bench
I remember watching the Phoenix v. Sacramento game in late March on League Pass (sane people should not do this) and tweeting at the time Cauley-Stein was finally being used optimally — that is, as a spread pick-and-roll dive man. WCS only played 255 minutes without any of Cousins, Koufos or Acy on the floor last year, a mere 18 percent, per NBAWowy. Against the Suns he went solo, resulting in a career high 26 points for WCS. In that game he logged heavy minutes next to the skilled and smooth-shooting Omri Casspi at the 4 spot in four-out looks. The entire complexion of the court changed instantaneously:
Notice how much room WCS has to operate, with the ability to put the ball on the floor in a large space to finish. The Suns had to stick with Casspi, a knockdown shooter, and there was a huge void in the interior of the defense with Phoenix arched around the four players beyond the three point line. The same lineup and four-out look occurred later in the game, this time resulting in a lob dunk:
Cauley-Stein is too quick, fast and explosive for most bigs to check with that much space to utilize.
If you were going to create one specific play that you thought would personify Cauley-Stein’s game entering the league along with the corresponding personnel, it would be this:
Leuer is reluctant to fully rotate down to dislodge WCS on his way to the basket in fear of leaving Collison on the switch, and if you don’t get a body on him he’s going to elevate over everyone to finish.
Utilizing WCS in this capacity is paramount to his ceiling outcome, and in doing so last year, it aided both Cauley-Stein’s obvious strengths and drew his under the radar skills to the service.
Lob Catching & Rim-Running
Entering the league Cauley-Stein’s two obvious translatable offensive skills were lob catching as a rim roller and rim-running in transition. Few bigs can change ends of the floor like this:
Armed with an insane run-and-jump catch radius, WCS is the optimal lob finisher around the rim:
He is incredibly fluid, explosive, and comfortable operating at high speeds, with the body control to catch on the move. As a roll man finisher, WCS totaled 66 finishing possessions and 1.14 PPP last season per Synergy Sports, good for the 80th percentile. Those possession types accounted for roughly 14 percent of WCS’s total finishing possessions, so there is still usage upside considering the best lob catchers in the league finish about 20 percent of their possessions there. The allure of WCS as the roll man and gravitational lob catcher is obvious (notice the spread system again):
He quickly became the fastest roll man in the league his rookie year and he attacks the vertical area around the rim with reckless abandon.
With similar success, WCS predictably thrived as a rim-runner, showing the speed, acceleration and agility of a guard:
He finished 81 possessions in transition on a 1.27 PPP clip, good for the 81st percentile per Synergy Sports. His possession frequency here was also high at 18 percent, a strong number for a 5 man. He’s one of the fastest 5s in the league (if not the fastest) and is a coordinated two-foot leaper:
The Kings would benefit from keeping a higher pace (especially with Cousins out) and employing Cauley-Stein as a transition dynamo in those settings. But there is more below the surface to WCS’s game than just rim-running and lob catching.
Hidden Skill Level
I get the vibe people associate Cauley-Stein with hyper athletic rim rollers like DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond, and from both an archetypal and role standpoint there are certainly similarities. But neither one of those players are a threat outside of the restricted area. Cauley-Stein quietly has some skill when he is allowed to operate in large spaces:
This face up fluid handle, quick change of direction and turnaround hook is no joke. The same goes for this left hand finish:
…And this fake handoff fluid finish:
His jump hook also looks legit, and could potentially serve as a go-to move (Pour one out for Ryan Kelly):
Cauley-Stein can actually operate with the ball in large spaces foul line extended. He’s not an especially adept passer or dribbler, and certainly wont be accused of having consistent playmaking 5 potential, but he can do enough skill wise with room to be effective:
And Again:
Cauley-Stein is also by no means an established shooter, but he put some promising flashes on film last year:
He even showed some potential to quickly gather and shoot not from a total stand-still:
The release is a little mechanical at the top, but the overall fluidity and body control is impressive.
He’s also essentially a non-factor in the post, finishing only 25 possessions there last season due to lacking the lower body girth to anchor against his position. It’s also his biggest impediment to combating likely switches in the pick-and-roll, and having enough juice to make smaller players pay inside. He does flash legitimate footwork on occasion:
That quick twitch reactionary second jump. Whew. This play also stands out:
There is more in this toolbox than the mere reputation suggests.
Takeaway
Overall, it is clear Cauley-Stein is more than just a stiff on offense, as he has displayed a respectable skill level when operating with spacing and when placed in the right court locations. He’s already one of the premiere rim-runners in the league and the fastest pick-and-roll diver, who also possesses plus vertical athleticism and requisite catch radius.
His main allure wasn’t really discussed above due to time constraints (that of course being defense), and a tremendous allure it is. Cauley-Stein has rare defensive range as a recovery shot blocker to pair with plus instincts:
Here he is switched onto Will Barton on the perimeter (that should tell you something in itself), recognizes the give-and-go to Emmanuel Mudiay, and has the closing speed to block the shot. He is similarly adept timing wise at rotating over from the weak side across the key to block shots:
His rookie season rim protection numbers impressively eclipsed the likes of defensive models in Nerlens Noel and Steven Adams per NBA.com (47.9 FG% near the rim), and far exceeded Drummond. Even more impressive was that the perimeter agility and tracking speed was definitely a real thing:
C.J. McCollum is one of the most slippery players in the league with the ball, and WCS effortlessly stays in phase with him on the drive to block the shot. It should not look this easy.
There’s plenty to look forward to from the 23-year-old athletic dynamo, especially if the Kings give him more minutes as a pure spread pick-and-roll dive 5, use him more as the roll man overall and afford him both the tempo to capitalize on his rim-running and the space to harness his face up skill game. He needs to finish plays smartly, which is currently his biggest vice. Too often he moves his feet and gets to the spots he needs to defensively, but carelessly reaches in and undermines his initial positives. It’s also unclear if spread lineups that feature him at the 5 can rebound well enough.
What is clear is that Cauley-Stein is flying under the radar for most, and he deserves more attention as an impact two-way player. This is a start.