How will Ivan Rabb’s return to school affect his NBA future?

Monday was the early-entry deadline for the NBA Draft and almost every relevant underclassmen looks to be testing the waters, with one of the few exceptions being Cal’s Ivan Rabb. Rabb was a surefire first-rounder and a likely lottery pick if he had kept his name in the draft, but instead, he opted to stay in school another year while fellow freshmen star Jaylen Brown departs for the league. With Brown and senior point guard Tyrone Wallace leaving, Cal’s roster is going to look a lot different next year, and Rabb’s prospect status will likely be significantly changed by his new circumstances. Cal’s roster will not be quite as talented as it was this year, but there’s good reason to believe both the team and Rabb might be more successful.

The thing to note about Brown and Wallace is that both were sub-30% three-point shooters who needed the ball in their hands to be successful on offense. Rabb’s best skill is his interior scoring, and having two space killers on the perimeter hogging possessions isn’t exactly the best way for him to showcase his game. Next year Cal will likely be starting seniors Jordan Matthews and Jabari Bird on the wings with either Sam Singer or Columbia transfer Grant Mullins starting at point. Matthews and Bird are both 40%+ shooters from beyond the arc and fringe NBA prospects in their own right – Matthews possessing a little more feel for scoring while Brown having an edge in athleticism. If Mullins ends up starting in the backcourt you would be adding another guy who shot over 40% from three last season, and someone who has shown he can run an offense with a solid 2.52 AST/TO ratio last year. Last year Cal’s crunch time units typically consisted of one of Matthews or Bird alongside Wallace and Brown, so the interior should be much more wide open for Rabb next year.

The other holdovers from last year’s rotation aren’t quite as exciting for Rabb; 7-foot centers Cameron Rooks and Kingsley Okoroh. Neither are bad college big man, but their presence means Rabb has to play exclusively the power forward role when he might be better suited to playing as a small-ball 5. One of the concerning flags in Rabb’s statistical portfolio this year was his lowly 4.1% block rate. You would like to see more out of a fairly athletic 6’10 guy who you hope could play some center even at the NBA level. Since Rabb was always slotted next to a more traditional center he didn’t have the typical rim protecting duties of a college big man, so it would be helpful to see whether he could show more shot blocking in a different role.

The converse of Rabb not getting to play the 5 is that he is forced to show more of his perimeter game on both ends of the floor. Towards the end of the season this year he began to show more shooting the ball, even making one three-point attempt. He’s got a fairly fluid and high release, and just showing that he has a consistent 15-18 footer would be a huge boon to his chances of NBA success. On defense Rabb more frequently gets to show off his mobility guarding smaller NCAA 4’s, and he should continue to shine there like he did this past season.

Even with all the added space on the offensive end, the onus still lies on Cal coach Cuonzo Martin, assuming he stays on as coach, to showcase what Rabb can do on the offensive end. Rabb’s body control and feel for scoring around the rim are unique for a man of his size and quickness, but too often this past year he was looked off by perimeter players forcing up reckless shots. As a result, Rabb only had a 20% usage rate despite being Cal’s far and away most efficient scorer. If Martin shifts Cal to an inside-0utside attack focused on Rabb’s scoring and their dangerous perimeter Cal could even improve on last year’s season, and Rabb could easily cement himself as a top-10 pick. I was a big fan of Rabb’s offensive game whenever he got to show what he could do this year, but I always left Cal games frustrated at his lack of touches. If he believes he will be more featured next year, it should turn out to be a very wise decision on his part to stay in school another year.